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Technology Stocks : INFORMATION ANALYSIS (IAIC) - YEAR 2000 Date Remediation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: the dodger who wrote (1600)5/13/1998 11:48:00 PM
From: Henry  Respond to of 2011
 
That is exactly the point! IAI is going to make a lot of money before 2000. At the same time they get to know many clients that have legacy systems. After 1/1/2000 IAI will be converting these clients from the legacy systems to open architecture systems. Please read carefully 10k and you will see that IAI is in bed with Oracle and Hewlett Packard. Therefore IAI already have excellent business plan lined up after 1/1/2000. As you agree, IAI will make a lot of money before 1/1/2000. Anybody who understands how business works should see that IAI will use the money to buy another company or two that will fit nicely into their business model. I think that IAI will be a good candidate for acquisition itself and probably sooner than some people may think.



To: the dodger who wrote (1600)5/13/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: Henry  Respond to of 2011
 
That is exactly the point! IAI is going to make a lot of money before 2000. At the same time they get to know many clients that have legacy systems. After 1/1/2000 IAI will be converting these clients from the legacy systems to open architecture systems. Please read carefully 10k and you will see that IAI is in bed with Oracle and Hewlett Packard. Therefore IAI already have excellent business plan lined up after 1/1/2000. As you agree, IAI will make a lot of money before 1/1/2000. Anybody who understands how business works should see that IAI will use the money to buy another company or two that will fit nicly into their business model. I think that IAI will be a good candidate for acquisition itself and probably sooner than some people may think.



To: the dodger who wrote (1600)5/14/1998 4:29:00 PM
From: ThirdEye  Respond to of 2011
 
Dodger, when you constructed your revenue projections you overlooked the fact that IA has already reported over $5MM in revenue for Q2--and that was before April was finished. I think that implies rescaling the whole thing upward.

Nevertheless, there is logic to your argument. The key, of course, is whether IA discloses concrete evidence of life after 2000 over the next few quarters--something solid to support a heavier PE. I'm sure they know the score.

By the way, rumor has it that CACI is dropping some juicy plums IA's way.



To: the dodger who wrote (1600)5/14/1998 9:26:00 PM
From: Sid Turtlman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2011
 
dodger: I made the same point here a few months ago, and it didn't go over any better than yours. I said that extraordinary, noncontinuous earnings are worth little more than one times earnings, not a popular sentiment here.

Any work that the company has after the Y2K flurry is history will be work that the customers can have done at their own pace, without a deadline hanging over them. That means that the customers can name their price and all the computer consulting outfits that have sprung up in the last few years because of Y2K will all say "Yessir, Boss!" and kill each other with price cutting to get these jobs.

The only real uncertainty is for how long after 1/1/00 this outfit remains in the black, IMO.



To: the dodger who wrote (1600)5/17/1998 4:45:00 PM
From: Matthew F. Kern  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2011
 
Dodger & Sid

If Y2K earnings, lasting two years from this date are viewed as extraordinary items for accounting purposes, this would be unusual because the earnings last over a single year. Any discussion of flat end to Y2K work in January 2000 is not supported by industry analysis. Such work is expected to trail off over several months to years, and margins would only sink in line with the drop.

However I agree most strongly that IAI needs to show a future path that takes them beyond 2000. Otherwise they could drop earnings precipitously in 2000.

As I posted earlier, the future of IAI is contingent on two (2) items from here on out. The first is solid publicity to make IAI's name known to the business and investment community as a company worth taking notice of. The second is identification of ANY OTHER PRODUCT AREA...... My best guess remains using the migration tool against JAVA, CORBA, and the wave of migration to the 'World Wide Web.' This is in line with their capabilities and takes them away from the low margin migration work between mainframe languages of which you have spoken.

Please note that SOFTWARE ENGINEERS have much to do and a bottomless floor on migration services after 2000 is not realistic. There are other problems that staff can perform. However we can see how profitable that business as usual migration was from pre Y2K earnings of various companies... i.e. 15% and minimal growth. The WWW answer has higher margins and steep growth.

Keep in mind the size of Y2K earnings will be huge, and quantity may make a qualitative difference. Also PROFESSIONAL SERVICES companies never do the same thing again, when Y2K ends the services portion of IAI will see that as business as usual. Contracts end and technology changes monthly.

If you are short, watch for announcement of any plan beyond 2000, one small plan could ruin your day. If you are long, beware any mental inertia at IAI that lets them believe they can avoid moving away from the same old migration business as a post 2000 revenue base. Look for shrink-wrap to support CA JASMINE or other new products, JAVA as a target language and CORBA wrappers for old mainframe COBOL to move to the web and the new round of web based MIS that is coming.

As for a PE of 1, bah, a check of 40,000 stocks in the Wall Street City database shows only a few at a PE of one, those mostly going out of business or bankrupt. IAI may not be your favorite stock, but it is neither bankrupt nor going out of business. IAI never traded at a PE of 1 before. I don't know if any of it's competitors trade at a PE of 1, if so let me know. This sounds like deliberate misinformation Sid. SHOW ME AN EXAMPLE OF A SIMILAR SITUATION!

..................Matt

PS All is well here, and although I am busy as heck I'm still alive and kicking! TOCK