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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19441)	5/14/1998 3:01:00 AM
From: H James Morris	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, Buy, buy, buy. Won't, Wall Street let anyone sell anymore??? Did I hear a Hwp pre-announcement??

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19441)	5/14/1998 1:09:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, I am also waiting to double up, but let me offer my opinion that there is almost no scenario, with any real chance of occurring, that will bring amat down to even 27. The company very likely is trolling the bottom right now, and appears highly likely to be able to earn a minimum of .80 per year on current revenue rates. This provides a pe of about 34 at the very bottom. Now, I know that it has often had a low pe at the bottom, which is actually rather bizarre for a cyclical. But we all need to face the fact of what has happened with amat's stock price from Nov to now. The action of the price was very appropriate early in that time frame,at least in retrospect, but the stock has since held much higher levels than a cold blooded realist would have come to expect, using history as a guide. This probably occurred due to overall market liquidity levels, plus recognition of amat's position as the gorilla of its industry. My conclusion is that amat will hold 30 unless the market corrects about 10%, AND it appears that the forward 4 quarters, at any given time, appear flat or down. It isn't likely to happen, especially with the dram supply/demand equation getting itself in line, slowly but inevitably, as a direct result of this down cycle. Therefore, I have raised my own buying points to 35, 33, 31 and 29. Ignoring all quotations after that, for about 2 years, will hopefully prevent me from grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.