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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (8590)	5/14/1998 11:11:00 AM
From: Electric	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42787

I know... My order didnt hit... it might still if it is a sucker rally.. But as I thought, strength in MSFT and IBM is supporting the winners, and the market isnt bashing in sectors like it did last time.. and that is the correct thing.. HWP being poor doesnt mean DELL will... The ship rolls on my friend... edit Normally I agree with you.. but this is DELL we are talking about, and we know they are gonna beat.. If we dump on Mon or Tues, we may miss alot.. I might do stop loss instead.. It may be powerful if they announce a split...

To: Chris who wrote (8590)	5/14/1998 1:43:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Respond to of 42787

Looks like market sentiment is changing. Buying continues in the face of mixed economic news. But look at what kind of hit HWP took on their earnings warning. The fears in the market appear to be still there. When a company now warns of an earnings disappointment, the speculators run. This is unlike earlier in this market where I have seen examples of stocks to continue their move up after a mild initial selloff. So the confidence in the market is not what it once was, but give the market time. This actually provides for a better backdrop to a new bull run. Upsides 1. Period of consolidation 2. Adjustment in market sentiment 3. Money back in the techs 4. Most companies have reported and many beat their earnings consensus estimates. 5. Key interest rate and inflation related economic reports have come out with a positive market response. Note that all of the above paves the way for at least a short term runup by the market. Downsides 1. Continued interest rate and inflation concerns. The long bond has periodically been moving above 6%. These concerns will not go away even though 6% may end up being dismissed until a higher figure is reached by the long bond. Cramer in one of his the.street articles supports this last statement. Still, higher interest rates will attract some money away from the stock market to the bond market by interest rate sensative market participants. 2. Market still in denial of a slowing economy. They are looking for corporate earnings to significantly improve for the last half of this year. High expectations can lead to disappointments and their impact on stock price. 3. Possible removal of foreign money from our markets, particularly Asian investment concerns like those in Japan. Note that all of the above downsides can be blow off by the market for the time being. These do not pose an immediate threat to the market, including the long bond interest rate. The long bond has been holding at or below 6%. But the market will closely monitor this situation. At least for now, I think the market is back closely in sync with the bond market. I would look for signs that the market is becoming less sensative to the 6% magic number. Open Issues 1. Greenspan and the upcoming FOMC meeting. 2. Market breadth is down and the consolidation period of the market is still continuing. Back a few days ago, some key market indices were showing signs of developing weakenss (distribution) according to a couple Donald Sew's posts that I have read. Perhaps a new bull run is shaping up. But this time I think it will have a different character, perhaps more like market cycles previous to the one earlier this year where the market will respond more to technicals, but still different due to continued market liquidity. We shall see. One key question here is are the techs in the position to lead the market once again? I have not closely looked at this possibility. I do not think we are finished with this trading range market yet, but I suspect some short term traders have been making the money. Just some thoughts. Any comments or feedback? Can anyone provide a broad technical analysis of the market? Also what is the disposition of fund money right now? Are funds stepping back into the picture? Bob Graham