Latest Cramer sighting long on ASND
--Question: Cramer what are your top 5 holdings and are you still buying AOL at 90?
TSCNYjjc: My top holdings remain Cisco, Dell, Ascend, WLA, IBM , AOL, Yahoo and I am still buying AOL.
--Question: James, what do you see as the next big technology merger if there is one?
TSCNYjjc: I am betting that Bay and Ascend might be
bought.
thestreet.com
Market Features: Cramer AOL Chat
Transcript
By AOL Chatters
5/14/98 9:36 AM ET
TSC daily columnist James J. Cramer chatted
Wednesday, May 13, on America Online; here is the text
of that chat.
PFbroker: Welcome back Jim!
TSCNYjjc: Great to be here!!!
PFbroker: Well so much has happened since the last
event, let's get to it!
Question: JJC... what about ENMD... and GNE.. seems
GNE has a breast cancer drug already on fast track but
stock not moving... why?
TSCNYjjc: All I can tell you is I am raring to go!!! ENMD is
a highly speculative situation. Wildly over hyped and
dangerous. The press was very irresponsible and it
suckered people in.
Question: How much longer do you think the market will
tread water for before making a big move -- and then which
way will it go?
TSCNYjjc: I expect the market to trade between 8500 and
9500 for the foreseeable future and then go to the high
side. But not for this year. I just think we could be locked
in a range for now.
Question: Is the FED going to raise rates now, or is it just
going to be a non-event no change?
TSCNYjjc: I think the fed badly wants to raise rates
because our economy is so strong. But Asian weakness
won't let them.
Question: Remember Advance Fiber
Communications[AFCI], the telecom company that really
impressed you at the Hambrecht and Quist conference?
The stock hasn't moved much lately. What do you think
about them now, at this price? Thanks, Gloria Graff.
TSCNYjjc: You know I thought the stock seemed
interesting, but I did not pull the trigger. I think I still
haven't done enough home work to make a judgment
long-term.
Question: What do think of Netscape? Are they making
the right moves?
TSCNYjjc: I think Netscape is extremely poorly run. I
believe they are not capable of playing in the league they
need to play.
PFbroker: Jim, a great question about the growth of
TheStreet.com ....
Question: JJC- congrats on the expansion in the
street.com.. what is in the near term for STREET.COM
TSCNYjjc: Thanks for asking as you know that is close to
home. We have about 15,000 paid subscribers and we
have a nice amount of advertising. Costs are still
outstripping revenues, but much of that is marketing. We
are closer to hitting the ball out of the park, which is why
we wanted our new partners, but I want to be sure we are
able to make a ton of money before the general public can
get involved. We are on plan though and it is darned
exciting for me.
PFbroker: Again, Jim we are happy to see TheStreet.com
grow and we're happy to have you online.
Question: What do you think about Dell Computer?? Is it
going to keep on moving up?
TSCNYjjc: Look, I will be honest. Our AOL deal is what
put us on the map. I think if you are not in business with
AOL, you aren't in the Internet business!!! Dell, well I am
still long Dell. I think that its future is very bright and there
is much more to come. it is a core position for me
Question: Do you feel that Asian investments are
dangerous right now?
TSCNYjjc: I believe that East Asian stocks are going to
go lower. I do not see values there until JA pan gets it
together. Which is not happening.
PFbroker: What about the nuclear test in India? Any
global impact on the economy?
TSCNYjjc: None whatsoever. An asterisk.
Question: Your opinion of the big cap drug stocks,
medium and long term?
TSCNYjjc: Still love the drugs. Favorite is WLA, which
splits in 2 weeks.
Question: James, what do you see as the next big
technology merger if there is one?
TSCNYjjc: I am betting that Bay and Ascend might be
bought.
PFbroker: Jim, what about all this merger activity - sign of
a market top looming?
TSCNYjjc: Not at all. That's just doom and gloom stuff.
Question: What biz is it of the Fed to try to guide the
market lower?
TSCNYjjc: Do you wish the Japanese Fed had done
that???? Look what happened over there since the market
got too high.
Question: Jim: Given the increasing size of funds, it is
harder for them to invest in micro-cap companies, either
because of the size or illiquidity
TSCNYjjc: No. Always hard to find good small companies.
But good managers can do it.
Question: Hi James Cramer. I enjoy watching you on
CNBC; it's always worth getting up early when you're the
guest. My question is, do you think an individual investor
should ever sell a particular stock for a loss?
TSCNYjjc: Of course, they should if the fundamentals are
deteriorating.
Question: Cramer what are your top 5 holdings and are you still buying AOL at 90?
TSCNYjjc: My top holdings remain Cisco, Dell, Ascend, WLA, IBM , AOL, Yahoo and I am still buying AOL. Why not??
PFbroker: I can't resist this one .......
Question: Which of the on line service providers has the
best possibility of being successful?
TSCNYjjc: AOL first; than Yahoo--I wrote that today in
www.thestreet.com.
Question: Dow 10,000 -- coming??
TSCNYjjc: Yes, but narrowly and not significantly.
Question: Why would a co. like computer task group with
all positive things going for it past, present. and future
continue to drop from 48 to 34 ... ranked a strong buy by
MCcALLS..#1 RANKING
TSCNYjjc: I don't have a clue; not my kind of stock.
Question: Do you think the deal between UAL and Delta
will be really profitable for those companies? When should
we buy airline stocks?
TSCNYjjc: Two years ago!! Actually these stocks are
okay, not great and I am not long them anymore.
Question: What must occur before you decide to take
TSC public?
TSCNYjjc: I want to make money for my partners
including any shareholders that I have. At 25,000 Circ
that's a gimme. But we are 10,000 from that.
Question: Hello, JJC. How about that online broker survey!
Loved it! Still like banks??
TSCNYjjc: Bought some Chase today. Firstar too. Love
banks
Question: May I ask what Dave Kansas meant by the
"harrowing airplane experience" involving Jim Cramer?
TSCNYjjc: Last week I was on a plane struck by lightning.
I wrote about it Monday. It is still available on the site.
Question: Do you think that AFCI would be a good
takeover candidate for a company like Lucent? What do
you think about AFCI?
TSCNYjjc: Hey, I think you are long AFCI and worried
which is not what I like to see.
PFbroker: Jim, speaking of all these takeovers ... USA
Today wrote about the SBC deal today stating that the
ROI would only be 4.4% based on $2.6 bil earnings is this
a good deal?
TSCNYjjc: No. I have no desire to be in it at all. Much
better fish to fry away from it.
Question: Jim, what is your outlook on Compaq?
TSCNYjjc: Love Compaq longer term. Own a small
amount now. Wish it had more mo!!
Question: Jim, When two heavy hitters like Edelstone and
Kurlak are so sharply divided on a powerhouse like INTC,
how do you know who to follow?
TSCNYjjc: Kurlak has made me more money than any
other analyst. I like them both. But Kurlak is the AX in
INTC. That's why I have a small position in INTC. Smallest
I have had in years.
Question: Is there any truth to the rumor that it is
DEFLATION we need to worry about and that Asia "will
drag us down" (general consensus with the bears)?
TSCNYjjc: Not at all. Deflation is our friend. It is the friend
of bonds, which is what is buoying this market.
Question: Within this range will the stocks keep revolving
and/or how is the best way to play them short term?
TSCNYjjc: Short-term I would stick with what's winning:
drugs, some tech, good 'net, and regional banks and
thrifts.
Question: Have you heard any rumors regarding Safeway
joining Kmart to operate their supermarket operations?
Any acquisition rumors about Safeway Inc.?
TSCNYjjc: No I haven't. Safeway is a great company;
K-mart a poor one I don't use any books on technical
analysis. I do use a Bridge machine to help me. I
recommend Bridge.
Question: Hello, should I be lightening up on stocks. I
have good gains in ge lu csco emc pfe trv wcom intc and
lots more. I'm leaving the US for 4 years and don't plan on
touching these at all. Should I stay this course?
TSCNYjjc: The fundamentals of these stocks aren't going
to change while you are away. I think you have a good list
of stocks and I would hold them.
Question: Where do you sign up for street.com and what
is the cost?
TSCNYjjc: You have to go to www.thestreet.com and it is
all there. Or go to Thestreet as keyword on AOL.
Question: I'm very concerned about computers and 2000
problem People are saying get money out of banks and
stocks its scary for us small investors and seniors
(almost)
TSCNYjjc: Silly and way too worrisome. Relax.
Question: Jim...what factors can take this market higher
up (over 10000), besides steady corporate earnings?
TSCNYjjc: We need lower interest rates for a meaningful
run here.
Question: Where do you think the US currency is going,
and how will the European monetary change effect it?
TSCNYjjc: Dollar is going higher. Multi-year bull market in
the dollar.
Question: Which emerging market do you like best for a
five year time horizon?
TSCNYjjc: I believe that Latin America--particularly Brazil
looks good.
Question: Do you have any advice about internet
telephony stocks such as Newspeak?
TSCNYjjc: I like to stick with the Ciscos and the Lucents
Question: When and where will KTEL bottom out?
TSCNYjjc: Look out below!!! Can't see that far.
Question: What do you think of the search engines short
and long term? Which ones do you think will be the
winners?
TSCNYjjc: Yahoo, maybe Excite.
Question: When will the Oil Drillers go up?
TSCNYjjc: When oil goes up.
Question: Hi Jjc...with the fed maybe ++short term rates,
would you reduce small cap s&l's?? thanks
TSCNYjjc: They will get hit and I will buy them
aggressively when they do.
Question: With e-commerce starting to become reality,
what do you think the prospects for Checkfree are? I have
a large position in ckfr for long term also. Why hasn't it
taken off like AOL or yahoo?
TSCNYjjc: Because it is not as good as they are. Simple.
Question: If a stock makes a strong move up, say 20%,
what makes you decide to sell a portion, or pull some $$
of the table and work it somewhere else?
TSCNYjjc: I don't if the fundamentals stay the same or
improve. I don't arbitrarily take money off the table.
Question: What do you think of the Daimler-Chrysler
merger?
TSCNYjjc: Huge, huge win. I will buy around $50.
Question: Any thoughts on IBM for a long term investment
... say 5 years?
TSCNYjjc: IBM is executing very well. This is a very
cheap stock. I like it very much.
Question: Speaking of computer positions, what about
MICRON?
TSCNYjjc: Not my style. Many other better stocks out
there.
Question: What do you think of the extreme valuations of
the internet stocks?
TSCNYjjc: Extreme is pejorative. I don't think AOL is
wildly expensive. I bought some today. Same with Yahoo.
Others like KTEL makes no sense to me. Or Market
Guide. Or Cybershop.
Question: How badly will Microsoft be hit by a broad
antitrust suit by the Feds and the states?
TSCNYjjc: I don't think it will be that bad. Mister Softee
will weather this and come back strong and fast,
Question: How do you see Pfizer moving by years end?
TSCNYjjc: Pfe seems very stalled to me. Too many
profit-takers. But Viagra is a huge drug and I hope PFE
pulls back so I can get in
Question: Thoughts on Cirrus Logic, takeover is in place,
then acquisition?
TSCNYjjc: I HATE CRUS.
PFbroker: Well alrighty.
Question: I buy closed end funds and notice that the
discounts on the Asia funds are widening again.... should
I wait and look elsewhere like Europe for now, or start
picking away on things like APF (MStanley Asia-Pac)
TSCNYjjc: Absolutely avoid them. I am stuck in one and it
is killing me. I don't want you to share the pain.
Question: Jim, in lieu of MSFT legal woes with justice
dept., should justice step in tomorrow, and stock react
negatively, would you view that as a buying opportunity?
TSCNYjjc: YES, YES YES!!!
Question: Your opinion of the European equity markets?
TSCNYjjc: I wish I had much bigger bets there. Those
markets are going gangbusters and I am underexposed.
Question: James, why is Coors acting so well?
TSCNYjjc: No idea; like the beer; hate the stock.
PFbroker: Jim, about AT$T, do you think Qwest will be a
problem for them?
TSCNYjjc: I think ATT is a problem for ATT. They are not
executing well at all. Qwest is a gnat for them. Everybody
is eating their lunch.
Question: Jim - your opinion on Airline stocks at present
P/Es
TSCNYjjc: I think they are boring right now. I don't feel
they have much going for them right now.
Question: Jim, outlook on Bell Atlantic?
TSCNYjjc: Boring!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Question: Do you think Boeing is a hold? They seem to
have all kinds of problems
TSCNYjjc: Boeing has peaked. I wouldn't touch it.
Question: What is the largest single bet you have made
recently (% relative to total money managed)?
TSCNYjjc: Gee, nothing really big. Don't have that kind of
conviction right now. Bought a ton of Bayview, a savings
and loan in SF that I think is cheap. That's recent.
Question: Does your fund have market cap limitations on
investments or would you invest in a compelling idea
independent of the market cap?
TSCNYjjc: No.
PFbroker: Jim a follow up to the AT&T question ...
Question: How do you see the Telecommunications
industry battle shaking out, who will be left, who are going
to be good investments?
TSCNYjjc: WCOM is my favorite way to play this group.
But I also like telco equipment companies like Lucent and
CLEC's like ICGX and MFNX.
PFbroker: Well WCOM seem like it is BECOMING the
group!
Question: Where do you see AOL in 5 years?
TSCNYjjc: Ooh--How about as the first network, ahead of
ABC, NBC and CBS.
Question: Cramer, what do you think of Gardenburger
(GBUR) and their big bet with a Seinfeld commercial to
gain market share?
TSCNYjjc: I hate bet the farm situations. Avoid.
Question: What do you think of Verio-national isp (ipo
yesterday)?
TSCNYjjc: Haven't done the homework--it was someone
else's position at my firm. Sorry.
Question: I heard home depot will split soon--true or false.
TSCNYjjc: What is this, fifth grade? I don't know. Give me
essay questions I was always better at those.
Question: Hello JJC, do you have a feel for some type of
correction some time this year, magnitude?
TSCNYjjc: I think things are locked in a range. I don't see
the big down side.
Question: JC who are the major competitors for a
cable/modem play? & Who do you like?
TSCNYjjc: I am very long Broadloom and think you should
do homework on that company which is very well run and
encompasses all the cable modem tech you want.
Question: Will there be a problem with the computers at
NYSE when Dow hits 10,000? Will it read 100, 1,000 or 0
and what will that do to jittery investors? If that happened
would it affect the program trading or do those guys watch
individual stocks?
TSCNYjjc: I don't lose sleep over it; then again I don't
sleep much.
Question: What about today's RII deal?
TSCNYjjc: Not a focus for me; don't like those guys.
Question: if you are BMW, do you stay independent or
attempt to merge w/ GM or F?
TSCNYjjc: BMW can stay independent and do just fine.
Great link with GM though. And good cars!
OnlineHost: Time for one last question...
Question: You seem very emotional on CNBC, do you buy
and sell with the same emotion?
TSCNYjjc: Look, I live life to the absolute hilt, fifth gear,
maximum G-Force whatever. That's just the way I play it.
That's how I write in www.thestreet.com. That's how I am
at home. That is how I have always been. That is how I
will always be. I don't know any other way to play it. I am
hardwired for enthusiasm and excitement and no one is
going to kick it out of me. EVER!
PFbroker: Jim, you NEED to write a book!
TSCNYjjc: No--I need to spend more time with my kids!!!!
They are my same age!!!!!
PFbroker: Well, we'll let you go home now. Thanks again
for chatting with us!
TSCNYjjc: My pleasure. I am thrilled to be here and I
enjoy working with you folks tremendously. Please,
please check us out in www.thestreet.com and good
trading!!!
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