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To: jef saunders who wrote (42065)	5/14/1998 1:05:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

This is an interesting post that should be looked at: <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< LT, the market is not so bloated as you think. consider that we have: a) low energy prices. every day that passes by, savings at the gas pump are pumped into the economy, eventually into corporate profits. b) low interested rates, claimed to be high now relative to inflation. c) no inflation the longer this goes on, the more corporate earnings go up, and the more p/e ratios go down. thus the higher p/e ratios are justified. i read last week that few living americans have seen such a time of prosperity. so this time now is better for the stock market that any other time YOU have ever invested. further all the instabilities in the rest of the world, and where would you want to put your money? in the u.s. market. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Things look the best when you're at a top a) oil prices hit their lows back in Feb, and have been trending higher, keep you r eye on the airlines, they'll tell you what investors think oil is going ot do. Note that nat gas prices are unseasonably high right now. They'll be going alot higher this winter. b) interest rates bottomed in Jan and have been slowly moving higher ever since. (yep that's right, rates have been moving sideways to slightly higher while the mkt has gone bananas) We're getting closer and closer to crossing back above the 200 dma on the yield. 50 dma looks to want to cross the 50 dma in a few weeks. c) low infaltion? yep, but it is tredning higher. oil will be moving higher from here. (check the data this morning) food prices coninue to increase because of El nino (I discussed this a month ago and was laughed at). Unemployment is at its lowest level since 1972 (coincidence that we had a bad bear in 73 adn 74?) salaries will move higher if the stock mkt slows because employees will want raises instead of worthless options. This stmt requires particular attention: <<<i read last week that few living americans have seen such a time of prosperity. so this time now is better for the stock market that any other time YOU have ever invested.>> When the masses are living it up and buying anything that moves, you want OUT. Keep in mind where I am coming from. I am not a permabear or been calling for doomsday since DOW 5000. I've owned and bought high tech growth and big cap high flyers for the past 15 yrs. I tunred cautious last yr during the summer and turned bearish recently. The signs of the end are starting to appear. I won't ignore them because I'm greedy. -Lucretius