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To: Moonray who wrote (12375)	5/14/1998 5:48:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25814

Well I see LSI slip sliding away on low volume. Met some interesting manic day traders today while at a local Waterhouse office (I was switching to a Roth IRA to take "advantage" of collapsing market!!!). One guy has been involved with semis since 1978. Very paranoid type. Bought MU recently. Feels (and I agree) if the semis takeoff sometime people like MU will benefit big time (commodity=big advantage in boom time when capacity is scarce). However one interesting thing he mentioned is the way the big guys accumulate stocks. He says that they buy a few 10s of 1000s then wait for the stock to come back down, then do it again, ad nauseum. So I asked him well how do you know if this is happening? Unfortunately he said we don't. However it got me thinking - is this the typical way a stock gets off a long term malaise (base) that for instance LSI is in. Up on heavy volume, down on light volume, back up on heavy volume etc etc. The corollary is that they may be nothing fundamentally wrong with the stocks or the strange pattern we have been seeing with LSI. It could be just that the ("intelligent") big guys are playing us for idiots here? They accumulate in spasmatic (?) bursts and then let it slide and then the little guys sell out on the low volume days and the big guys get in again - I guess this could be happening but how could one check? Shane. (chip content in consumer devices = LSI's magic secret hand = My liking of LSI) O and I forgot - he said to watch the revenue (duh!) - more important than earnings in the initial stages of the recovery. Now which semiconductor company is showing gradually increasing revenues???? Hmmmm... L S I We shall see how the doomsayers react in a few years time...

To: Moonray who wrote (12375)	5/14/1998 10:07:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

O~~~o Earth to Moonray.. Great post. Katherine does a great job with Semiconductoronline, wouldn't you agree? The post was more sobering than encouraging..to me at least. Extracting: " So why are IC manufacturers and their equipment and materials suppliers feeling so much pain? According to figures from SEMI, March equipment orders were off 12% from February, and February was off 11% from January. The March book-to-bill ratio was a startlingly low 0.80, marking four consecutive months with a value below 1.0. Forecasts put 1998 IC growth at only 8% in dollar terms, in an industry accustomed to 17% average growth. Data from the first quarter suggests even that estimate is overly optimistic." Pretty scary comments for a guy who is heavily invested in the semi industry! //OT// Hey, golf is good upon first venture onto the links... my last round at the end of the '97 season was a 91...and I strarted with a 79 this year... I wonder if there is some inverse correlation with my stock market results? <g> But it was nice to extract from my golfing buddies some of those quarters and halves I yielded so grudgingly last fall.. How is fishing?? TSO