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Technology Stocks : HWP -- Hewlett Packard -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Struggling Investor who wrote (2226)	5/14/1998 9:06:00 PM
From: cirrus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4722

A friend suggested this article. I agree. Its good. Hey, you should post this link to the thread. I can't because I have not paid yet for SI. It is a great article. pathfinder.com Good luck!

To: Struggling Investor who wrote (2226)	5/15/1998 12:22:00 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4722

>>What is puzzling me (beyond belief) is how they can expect to disappoint Wall Street for eight straight quarters. Patricia, what you are overlooking is that the numbers being missed are the analysts' numbers, not HP's numbers! HP (and publicly held companies in general) do not forecast specific revenue or earnings numbers to the market; they'd have legal problems if they did unless they hit them on the button. They meet with analysts and discuss their business model and then the analysts make their own guesses. If HP has not met the numbers for eight quarters, blame the analysts for consistently over estimating the profit potential in HP's business arena. You'd think they'd learn after 3 or 4 times, wouldn't you? Instead of focusing on HP not meeting the analysts' numbers, I try to look at HP's fundamentals: growth of revenue, growth of earnings, margins, roe, debt to equity, etc., as compared to other large cap high tech companies. Meeting or missing the analysts' estimates each quarter only impacts the short term stock action, not the real value of the company. Of course, I'd be happier if they'd crush the numbers, but those dumbass analysts just can't get it right. Happy investing, Frank

To: Struggling Investor who wrote (2226)	5/15/1998 12:27:00 AM
From: Frank Drumond	Respond to of 4722

All I can say is, I used to work there and left of my own free will. Glad I did. The management is very slow to understand industry trends. It is a big company so they do get it right on occasion. At this point, and really for a long time, they are just a printer company. Someone will eat there lunch there eventually. HP just has too many complacent managers and too man employees that are just willing to complain about the complacent managers. Lots of smart ones, but just don't have the balls to do the right thing.... Sorry guys, but get a life, start a company. I did and you can invest in my company in a year or two.

To: Struggling Investor who wrote (2226)	5/18/1998 1:23:00 AM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Respond to of 4722

> how they can expect to disappoint Wall Street for eight straight quarters... Let me see here. Wall Street analysts pull numbers out of their ass, totally ignoring the company's previous statements about difficulties in several markets, but HWP is expected not to disappoint? The fact that HWP misses estimates says more about the "analyst" understanding of the company (or lack therof) then it does about HWP's performance. These guys seem to have forgotten that HWP is not a Dell or Compaq, doesn't try to be, and never will be. Things often forgotten are: * The large instruments business (20-30% of the company), which is a huge chunk of the margin, and is extremely sensitive to Asia in recent years. * The large service and support business, which has a nice margin but not necessarily tremendous growth like the PC business. * The large peripherals and printers business, which enjoys growth and margins which are slower than PCs. Of course, all these are also reasons that HWP shouldn't necessarily crash when CPQ does either, but the analysts often fail to see that point too. I could come up with more... mg