To: Harmattan who wrote (2999 ) 5/15/1998 2:38:00 AM From: Harmattan Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6076
Hi Gator, FWIW, I would like to make clear the single basic assumption on which my optimism toward SYD is based. I state it as a vehicle to raise an issue that, to my knowledge, has never been discussed in relation to Sideware. My optimism is based solely on the belief that Sideware will secure one or several large contracts with large corporations. I put very little stock in this recent refocus of the company in an effort to gain the reins of its own destiny. As a strategy of negociation with a major company, the refocus may be useful. But as a legitimate (regardless how well intentioned) attempt to "make it on its own", it is doomed to failure (don't throw stones...let me explain my reasoning). First, let me make an extravagent statement that time (less than 1 1/2 years) will prove or disprove. Most if not all small, publically traded, high tech companies not firmly aligned with a major player will be pulverized by macroeconomic (factors beyond their control) events. Antedotal evidence is hardly rigorous science, however, I am, on an ongoing basis, making a point of grabbing any and every "average joe and jane" I can and am asking a set of basic personal questions. I am not looking for "facts". I am trying to feel people's perceptions of "macroeconomic facts". I ask about the Y2K issue, the Asian issue, the European Union and the Yen/Euro dollar/US dollar relationship and also what, if any, effect all of the above will have on their personal circumstances. I am convinced that, wheather real or not, the perception of the Y2K problem will take society to high levels of uncertainty. The mainstream media will get hold of the Mill Bug in a big way (I think it will increasingly dominate the news in 99) at the same time as the Asian contagion begins to spread outside the region. IMO at some point (but possibly not before a major blow off top in the senior markets) investors will seriously question the wisdom of even staying in the markets (through stocks or mutual funds) until the Y2K problem resolves itself one way or another. At some point an intangible threshold will be crossed and IMO liquidity will severely dry up. Small high techs out on their own will strangle. The only long term hope for companies like Sideware will be under the protection of a major regardless how wonderful a small companies ideas and plans. (the merger mania among Mega Caps is to me tacit admission that to be small is to be dead). IMO in the meantime volatility will continue to grow and these small outfits will be subject to increasing short term speculation and decreasing long term holders. Even true blue believing insiders will increasingly hold smaller positions in their companies as they sense what is forming in the marketplace. To summarize, I remain long on SYD because of the prospect of solid large contracts and for no other reason. If these do not materialize by virtue of statements regarding Dr. Bean and IBM/Net Notions and Lotus beginning in New York and leading up to Oct then I will consider myself to have made a mistake and cut my losses. That was the reasoning I used to get into this stock and it will the assumption I use to measure progress. The storefront and other initiatives related to the new company focus will not of itself keep me in this stock. Macroeconomic events will just be to overwhelming to be withstood without alliance. Sorry for being longwinded. I just feel these macro issues need airing even in the context of this forum. Anyway, I look forward to Agora's update anytime soon. It should have some positive things to say. ghunk