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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger Lovett who wrote (16957)	5/15/1998 7:05:00 AM
From: RAVEL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31646

Roger, I agree about not being able to make the 14 cents. Just curious though. TAVA currently has about 20.2 million shares out. Are you assuming this will be increasing by next quarter to 25 million. Also, what are your assumptions. Thanks. RAVEL

To: Roger Lovett who wrote (16957)	5/15/1998 7:38:00 AM
From: Money Mood	Respond to of 31646

First Call estimates included projected CD sales, imo they should be cut now. I personally had a positive surprise this Tuesday as I expected small negative figure for this quarter. Viktor.

To: Roger Lovett who wrote (16957)	5/15/1998 9:11:00 AM
From: JDN	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31646

Dear Roger: I hate to forecast publicly but I must comment that your numbers are WAY off. You are presuming all ratios remain the same. That I believe is a fatal error. The simple method is to just take the additional employees available and make assumptions as to THEIR contribution this quarter OVER AND ABOVE the last quarter. 50 employees were highed last qtr. ASSUME 50% effective rate ie hired evenly over the quarter. So that means 25 additional contribute over and above in 4th qtr. 150 being hired during 4th qtr assume 50% utilization rate (hired equally during the qtr) that means 75 people on average contribute to 4th qtr from this pool. Total the 25 and the 75 and you get 100 people. Figure 40 hrs a week, $150 hr 12 weeks in quarter=100x40xx$150x12=$7,200,000 figure net of Direct Labor cost (all other costs added to billing rate) 70%=$5,040,000 figure SGA remain the same (my thoughts are increases will be offsett by cuts) Figure after tax at 60%=$3,024,000 Divide by 21,000,000 shares (even if total number of shares go up you have to take the weighted average not the ending number) and you get $.14 plus the 1 cent from 3rd quarter and equals $.15 cents. Sales under this scenario would be approx $18,000,000. Now, I dont want to argue this. I have given you my thoughts and my means of reaching the figure. You can insert anything you want into the equation and reach your own figures. For instance I have assumed NO IMPROVEMENT in CD-ROM sales. That is highly unlikely as Jenkins is addressing the problem and very likely will improve, if it does its part of my cushion. I have presumed NO OVERTIME that also is highly unlikely but again is part of my cushion. I have assumed NO LICENSING fees, ungain unlikely but part of my cushion. All I am doing here is showing you that it is MORE LIKELY THAN NOT that the company will in fact reach the $.14 figure. The only really MAJOR assumption is that the company is working off of a backlog and thus down time will be minimal. JDN

To: Roger Lovett who wrote (16957)	5/15/1998 10:26:00 AM
From: Rick Bullotta	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31646

Roger, not to be a contrarian, but the good news is that your math doesn't add up...SG&A will not increase linearly, and gross margin will be considerably higher, as all new hires are booked to capacity on high rate business and are not that highly paid...much of the new work will be "bottom line incremental" with minimal impact on fixed costs...

To: Roger Lovett who wrote (16957)	5/15/1998 8:48:00 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31646

Roger, a shorts perspective of the numbers. (I was hoping to see the 10-Q before commenting on this quarter). If TAVA generates $5M in additional revenue this quarter (about $17M total), it is possible, although unlikely, that they could achieve the analyst's forecast. It is simple: 1) 60% gross margin on additional revenue. 2) pay no taxes (TAVA's tax loss carryforward is approximately $4.3M) 3) hold expenses (G&A is possible, although M&S will probably increase) This translates to about $0.13 per share fully diluted. You are correct in using the fully diluted shares of approx. 25 Million. (The other poster is wrong ... as usual). This is NOT my prediction - just an example. I will make revenue and earnings forecasts for the quarter after the 10-Q is filed. BTW, be careful with these "analyst" estimates! Remember these analysts are paid by TAVA to "follow" the Company. Surprised? Regards, Bill