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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (1610)	5/15/1998 8:33:00 AM
From: Ron Bower	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2951

Mike, China is relying on an export surplus of $US140B this year. A currency devaluation would make this virtually impossible. China's exports grew over 13% in the 1st Q '98 compared to 20% for all of last year. Surplus was $US40B. Many companies are seeing increased orders, even from Japanese companies. This would indicate that there is no need for them to make any policy changes near term. China should condemn Japan and Taiwan for their failure to support currencies, but I don't see this as an indicator that they will allow the $HK or the Rmb to weaken. IMO - There's a lot of unwarranted panic in the Asian markets and unwarranted optimism in US markets. For what it's worth, Ron

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (1610)	5/15/1998 12:59:00 PM
From: Tom	Respond to of 2951

Mike: Beyond local asset pricing, which as we know can't be overlooked in Hong Kong, the HSI is sentiment-driven. That's all. Hong Kong is in good fiscal shape. Calls for the HSI to re-visit the lows of last year I, and I suspect others as well, base more on a "baby with the bath water" evolution. Regional and national damage assessments have been recorded. The effects of the damages, however, have yet to be fully manifested throughout the region. Hong Kong will trend w/ the remainder of the region. It's really beginning to smart, however. The pain is being felt now by both businesses and individuals. It's "do or die" time for many establishments.