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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (3607)	5/15/1998 10:56:00 AM
From: tom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

I don't know the figure for Citibank (probably between $200-500m) but I am fairly sure they will lose all of what they have there. Japan I think only has US$26bn there but I may be wrong. I agree that the most exposed are the European and Japanese Banks (and the Koreans but they are always the marginal creditors to any screwed up economy). The Japanese were extremely aggressive lenders in both US$ and Rupiah all through 1996 and 1997 and I am positive that they will need to write off US$15-20bn+ from Indonesia. I don't believe this BS about them just lending to exporters and local operations of Japanese companies. Deutsche Bank said that it only had US$1bn exposure to Indonesia but I know that their country limit for Indonesia was US$3bn and in 1997 that they had asked head office to increase that to US$5bn! ie $1bn seems a little on the low side. ABN have US$700m exposure and they expect to write off more than 80% of this. HSBC had lent US$100m to Steady Safe Taxis (infamous bankrupt company in Indo) although Peregrine may have refinanced this before they went under. The best bit is that Steady Safe still trades on the Jakarta Stock exchange even though it is bankrupt. Impressively it was one of only 6 stocks trading today and the owner managed to ramp price up 36%!!!!!!