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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (16051)	5/18/1998 5:42:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68255

Jim, To follow up on my Friday post and to provide a second opinion: I am not sure I agree on LU. From a fundamental point of view LU is way overvalued, but the technicals still look alright. The price is currently at the lower 20 day Bollinger bands with the Stochastic approach 20. Getting close to oversold though not quite oversold yet. Same thing on the William's %R indicator which is approaching -90 ( with -100 being an oversold condition on my chart). The OBV is flattening but I don't see any large wholesale selling yet. If you look at the 15 minute charts, I still see large blocks taking the price up on any significant dip. Clint might be able to give you a better read on the tape. On ADI, the large blocks on Thursday and Friday indicate this stock is in trouble. They announced they were reducing their distribution channel on April 23. This might indicate they are worried about control cost. I don't follow this company all that closely. They have always been consider a second tier player in the DPS market from my point of view. They tend to sell to the low cost applications end of the spectrum. Some of that area has been invaded by LU's new products. They should track the direction of TXN. From a technical point of view, the OBV have broken my trend line indicating the current positive run on the stock is over. The price has broken the lower Bollinger Band and the lower band is pointed down. Stochastics and William's %R are oversold or nearly oversold. It looks like ADI should bound Monday before retracing down. The 15 and 5 minute charts indicate very little buying as the stock fell the last 2 days of trading. Earnings are next Wednesday. I have no opinion on PLAB. I still down follow the semiconductor equipment sector all that closely except for AMAT. The AMAT foward guidance did not look good for the next 4 quarters. The daily trading on PLAB is unusual. I saw some large blocks go through with no change in the price. ******************************************** An interesting point was made by my broker on Friday. He thought that this would be Greenspans' last chance to change rates before the elections. After the meeting on Tuesday, the FOMC does not meet till July. That is very close to the start of the elections in the USA. He can't afford to be seen affecting the elections, so his ability to change rates is drastically reduced. Have you noticed the huge divergence on the SPY's? The OBV is dropping like a rock as the price have risen or stayed flat recently. This is not a good sign for the broader market. Good luck tomorrow. This is a long weekend in Canada. The markets are close for us here. Good night, I have had enough programming for tonight. I am going home to a nice comfortable bed.. Regards Harry