AV & Jeffers, [and editing, after reading the last post!!] Ok, you too, TX, :)
I am not trying to be a nay sayer... and I am long ALYD [gag] as y'all know, however... I really wanted to voice an opinion here that will not be popular (Oh well! :), but since it's among friends... TAKE THIS:
Listen, guys... note that whenever ALYD dives on big volume (i.e. large investors dump) and the stock tanks, we immediately post that "this is the time to buy more!" and VOILA'...there it goes up a point or two the next session. Note here that the downside volume was much more significant than today's upside action. Are there any large blocks on the offer today, or smaller positions? See my point?? We basically rally this stock ourselves, as evidenced by today's volume.
Now, perhaps when it appears on the scans to be up a point or two, it will attract the attention of the big boys, who will then jump on it and swing the momentum, which will then cause more little guys to jump on the train, and so on... a self-fulfilling prophesy basically, BUT...
I'm not into the "stock manipulation" theories too much myself. I think that most people just have a hard time dealing with bad judgements, and that they become so overly emotional with their stocks that they have to displace their erroneous judgements somewhere... and they do. Maybe it's human nature. I dunno, but I'm kinda sorta tired of reading stuff like, "This is the best thing since sliced bread, I'm buying ALLLLLLLL I can!" Then, 2 wks. later, "This sucks. I dumped it." And a few weeks pass by, and the same user posts, "I looooooove XYZ!! They have great management, great earnings, and I'm a schizophrenic!!!"
That's why I just mostly use TA. ;) "Don't get emotional with the stock."
As far as this board or SI or the net in general having an effect on stock prices, I believe it is absolutely true. Particularly with issues with small floats, and few market makers. Surely the MM do follow the threads. It's not so much manipulation on their part as it is supply and demand. If they've got the takers, they'll up the price... they have to, in order to take in some shares from the sellers to flip to their buyers. I don't have any data per se on inventories as it were, so I can't speak to these effects specifically, but surely they seem valid, at least to me. ;) It's not the "evil" market makers, IMO, it's sometimes the blatant stupidity and greed of the investors and traders who chase stocks up and down, show no discipline whatsoever in their approaches, and seem to have no idea about stop losses or entry points. For me, I'd rather miss a few moves, and I have <ggg> than to get caught up in the hoopla and end up crushed. It's happened to me before, and whenever I have done that, I have realized that I relied on someone else's feelings rather than my own judgement and skills. Serves me right. <ggg>
So, our community mentality here and on the ALYD thread is basically Pavlovian. Stock goes to 12-13 [ding ding ding], everyone salivates, AND THEY BUY IT. Result? What a surprise! It's up a point or more on low to average volume .
Today's move is a sucker's rally, unless a PR comes out to bring in the volume that is needed to maintain a bullish move on the stock beyond a few points. There will be another chance to pick some up cheaply, there always is.
I do believe that ALYD probably won't go much lower than it has in the last couple of days, unless something nasty crawls out from under a rock. Or Jeffers' toupe. ;) There's good support in the 12-13ish range off the top of my head (haven't checked the chart today), however, to break out of the current range and move to the next level of support and resistance requires more than what we're seeing today in terms of volume and momentum. Personally, this is one time that I will not throw good money after bad. I would rather jump in higher, after a confirmation that the downward trend has been reversed and pay more than to be duped into hoping for ~18 or whatever, and find that it plays a couple of points below that for some time.
I think the recent news is positive, and the earnings were great, but we need to remember that ALYD and the Y2Ks as a whole are very "emotion-based" stocks, driven by greedy investors (like us ;) who want to get the big one just this once. (Rachel in particular has a problem with that on occasion. StevieBoi?? Where are you?? ;) There's a lot of risk in these Y2K plays. I am not sure that most investors would be wise, with smaller portfolios, to average down until the trend reversal confirms. For you, AV, with your ENMD profits (I couldn't be happier for you, as you know! :), it makes sense to "collect" some ALYD all the way down, and all the way up. Your portfolio can tolerate it, your basis will will be sweet. Most cannot play that way, however. So, my point (finally?!?!?) is just that I worry when the little guys take their last $5K and throw it out there hoping for the reversal instead of waiting for the proper entry point. It's much less stress to wait.
Of course, as I said, if some good news hits next week, this could make the run of '97 look lame in comparison... but, if the momentum comes into the stock, buying a few bucks higher on the way to the 30s or whatever would be preferable to me than speculating right now.
Having said all of the above, I think I'll go and buy some calls. LOL
xoxo,
V.
P.S.
ADPT is really looking weaker... weaker... watch out!
S.P.S.
I hope everyone has a nice weekend!! It was 100 here yesterday... and it's only MAY!! ACK!!! |
