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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (42338)5/15/1998 11:09:00 PM
From: stock bull  Respond to of 176387
 
Chuzzlewit, you need to team you up with my brother. He has his PhD is statistics and is a professor in the School of Management Science at our local university. I only have a BSEE and MBA. I have gone around these topics with my brother numerous times. I have often said that if forecasting was that easy, we should all be making our millions in the market with no sweat. Greenspan does a great job in managing the economy...at least up until now. If he could forecast market events, I would think he might want to leave his present job, which I'm sure is a pressure cooker, and make his money in the market.

The one factor that, IMO, screws up the forecasting models is the human factor. How do you forecast the human factor? India blow up a nuclear bomb and the markets shake. Riots in SEA and we are back to the Asian problem. An the beat goes on.

Better stop here or I'll eat up all of server's memory and SI will kick me off the site.

Stock Bull