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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SJS who wrote (8843)	5/17/1998 1:54:00 AM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

> many more countries that want to pump more All that is true in so far as it goes. But what tends to happen when a major low cost producer goes offline is that we don't RUN OUT of oil, rather we run out of the oil that is available at a given price. Lots of other countries would be more than happy to provide replacement stock at somewhat higher prices. The "voluntary quotas" work primarily because they are set at levels where some producers just can't get much benefit from producing more. They'd be happy to toss that extra production into the market at higher prices. So I'm not forcasting the end of the world here, just that removal of a major source of supply would somewhat impact prices. As you note, it probably doesn't matter too much to consumers, other than the psychological effect of realizing that downward-spiraling prices aren't forever. However, for companies like airlines, even a few percent increase is very significant. mg