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To: RFF who wrote (12423)	5/15/1998 4:57:00 PM
From: DavidG	Respond to of 25814

RFF, With LSI I am buying in small lots, 1/6 of MAX holdings, down to an expected 21 level +/-. Right now I have 1/3 of MAX so I am happy. I would like to see it hold here but don't expect it to. SOXX looks bad and NAZ is struggling. I have small amount of INTC shorted at 84 3/4. Find that is a good resistance level. MU though I took a loss on today when I started out long but went short and started making up some loss. Monday will be interesting since there usually is a reversal to some degree of expiration Fridays drop. DavidG

To: RFF who wrote (12423)	5/15/1998 6:02:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25814

Try this reasoning out: Reasonably Aggressive (ignoring those whacko spikes): LSI sinks <= 18.5 - probability 10% LSI sinks <= 19.5 - probability 30% LSI sinks <= 20.5 - probability 40% LSI sinks <= 21.5 - probability 50% LSI sinks <= 22.5 - probability 70% LSI sinks <= 23.5 - probability 100% (above is a cdf not pdf) ---- Scenario A: Establish limit buys at 23, 22, 21, 20, 19, 18 - equal dollars Expected average buying price: 18(.1-.0) + 19 (.3-.2) + ... + 23 (1.0 - 0.7) = 21 So if I buy at 23 1/4 I have not killed myself. ---- Scenario B: Do all your buying only with a limit buy at 20. Expected average buying price = 20 (duh!) with 60% chance you get no fill. Not bad. But not much of a difference from the average (certainty of) 21 in A. ---- Scenario C: Buy 1 at 23, 2 at 22, 3 at 21, ... 6 at 18. Expected Average Buying Price: 1/3 * { 18(6 .1) + 19(5.2) + ... + 23(1 0.3) } = 20 --- So no need to worry - be happy. Scenario C gives you piece of mind but there is a chance you won't commit enough of your cash. I would do confidence intervals but not in the mood!!! ---- Shane.