Forbes Memo to Congress on the Year 2000 Computer Crisis
To: National Desk
Contact: Joel Rosenberg of Americans for Hope, Growth
and Opportunity, 703-925-9281
WASHINGTON, May 15 /U.S. Newswire/ -- The following memo
was released today by Americans for Hope, Growth and Opportunity:
May 15, 1998
TO: Members of Congress and Conservative Leaders
FROM: Steve Forbes, Honorary Chairman
SUBJECT: The Year 2000 Computer Crisis
The Year 2000 (Y2K) computer crisis is now upon us and the federal
government is even more woefully unprepared than the rest of society.
The implications are ominous. Medicare, the IRS, the Federal
Aviation Administration and other basic agencies are operating on
utterly out-of-date technology. It doesn't take much imagination to
see how dreadfully wrong things could go.
Some Y2K problems have surfaced already; more will surface soon.
Most states begin their fiscal 2000 years on July 1, 1999; the
federal government, on October 1, 1999.
"There is very little realization that there will be a
disruption," Sherry Burns, director of the Central Intelligence
Agency's office studying the Year 2000 problem, told Reuters. "As you
start getting out into the population, I think most people are again
assuming that things are going to operate the way they always have.
That is not going to be the case."
"There is no way we're going to fix 100 percent of all the
computer systems around the world in time," warned Edward Yardeni,
chief economist with Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, in an April interview
with the technology magazine, FORBES ASAP. "My analogy is the 1973-74
recession. Just the way a disruption in the supply of oil caused a
global recession, a disruption in the flow of information, especially
if it is critically important information, might similarly disrupt
global economic activity and produce a recession."
The federal government's Y2K compliance efforts recently received
a "D-minus" grade by the House Subcommittee on Government Management,
Information and Technology, chaired by Representative Steve Horn of
California.
What has the Administration's technology point man, Vice President
Al Gore, been doing for the past five years?
-- Only 63 percent of the 7,850 federal computer systems deemed
"mission critical" -- that is, vital to protecting U.S. national
security, health, safety, education, transportation, and financial
and emergency management -- will be ready on January 1, 2000.
-- Five Cabinet-level departments (Defense, Education,
Transportation, Labor and State) received "F" grades. Only 24 percent
of Defense's mission-critical systems have been fixed to date. Only
36 percent are expected to by fixed by January 1, 2000. At this rate,
Defense's mission-critical systems won't be completely fixed until
2009.
-- "The impact of (Year 2000 computer) failures could be
widespread, costly, and potentially disruptive to military operations
worldwide," concluded a chilling April 1998 General Accounting Office
report. "In an August 1997 operational exercise, the Global Command
Control System failed testing when the date was rolled over to the
year 2000. GCCS is deployed at 700 sites worldwide and is used to
generate a common operating picture of the battlefield for planning,
executing, and managing military operations. The U.S., and its
allies...would be unable to orchestrate a Desert Storm-type
engagement in the year 2000 if the problem is not corrected."
Serious problems face the private sector, too. According to March
surveys by the Information Technology Association of America and The
Y2K Group:
-- 94 percent of information technology managers see the Y2K
computer issue as a "crisis";
-- 44 percent of American companies have already experienced Y2K
computer problems;
-- 83 percent of U.S. Y2K transition project managers expect the
Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall by at least 20 percent as the
crisis begins to unfold;
At its core, this is not a technology crisis; it is a leadership
crisis. We have the technology to fix or replace every computer and
software program affected by Y2K, though it will be expensive.
Technical corrections are estimated to cost between $300 billion and
$600 billion globally. Litigation, lost business and bankruptcies
could drive the costs over $1 trillion.
Distracted by scandals and side-tracked by questionable crises
like global warming, the Clinton-Gore Administration is failing to
insure that vital government computers will be fixed in time. Nor are
they impressing the American public and foreign governments with the
urgency of this crisis. Why such silence? Are they trying to limit
public concern until after the mid-term elections? The stakes are
too high for such partisan political games.
With the Clinton-Gore Administration AWOL, Congress must urgently
fill this leadership vacuum. Increase defense funding to speed up
compliance. Create Y2K compliance penalties and incentives for key
federal agencies. Require the Federal Emergency Management Agency
(which itself received a "D-minus" grade for Y2K compliance) to
develop contingency plans for major disruptions in vital services.
Move fast. Time is short. |
