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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (55626)	5/15/1998 5:12:00 PM
From: Ian Davidson	Respond to of 186894

Article..INTEL inside APPLE: news.com Ian

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (55626)	5/15/1998 5:22:00 PM
From: Jimbo Cobb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Looks like another trip back to $75 for Intel...glad I sold the covered calls when it moved up last week !!!! When/if it gets back to $75 range, will be time to sell the naked puts again !! How long can Kurlak keep it down ??? Mark.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (55626)	5/15/1998 5:30:00 PM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

Mary, TK may be a manipulator, but As a long term investor wishing to hold and buy more, I'm having problems with some of the data. QTR/QTR earnings/shr performance. Q1'98 earnings are 26% below Q1'97. ($0.81/$1.10) Based on consensus estimates and seemingly backed by AG's statements, Q2'98 will be ~25% below Q2'97. ($0.71/$0.94) QTR/QTR Net Profit margins. Q1'98 Net margins are down ~30% from Q1'97. (21.2%/30.8%) YR/YR earnings/shr performance. Based on consensus estimates, FY'98 will be ~18% below FY'97. ($3.18/$3.86) Again based on consensus estimates, FY'99 will be flat to FY'97. ($3.88/$3.86) Stock price/PE's The stock is trading at about the same price as a year ago. So I have to assume that the forward looking PE is higher than a year ago. In fact, if FY'99 will be flat to FY'97, why should I expect a large increase in the stock price in the next few months? TK may cause short term depressions in the price, but it seems to me the issue is more basic. While Intel has stated they expect second half to recover, they haven't quantified the recovery. The analysts also predict recovery, but not to the extent that FY'98 will beat FY'97! Or even that FY'99 will beat FY'97. This probably has more impact on the trading range than TK's musings. The problems at the major PC makers don't help. All those great things you say about Intel are true. But for the stock to go up they have to grow, and unfortunately, they need to grow at historic proportions. Flat Year/Year revenues and down earnings aren't going to cut it. What we need is an intelligent forecast that growth will happen, both revenues and earnings. I agree with those who claim TK is manipulating the stock for his clients. But this is short term. And it also creates a buying opportunity. (Assuming that performance will prove to be better than forecast). Now if I can just convince myself that will happen I'm ready to jump in for more. :-)

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (55626)	5/15/1998 6:54:00 PM
From: Larry Loeb	Respond to of 186894

Mary, This is too pollyannaish for me. This guy is killing our investment now and as far as I can see into the future. If you look back at other Kurlak calls (such as Intel falling to the 40's - pre-split - in March 1996) you'll see that the market reacts, and then does the right thing. When he made that March call, he used that commodity argument based on DRAM prices. He still doesn't get it!! The market rewards performance. When Intel reports better than expected results, the stock price will reflect it. This is a time of uncertainty. Kurlak is on the negative prognostication side, you are on the positive. We'll all make our bets and see who's right in the end. As for comparing Motorola's P/E. It's a little bit of an apples and oranges comparison. Motorola has performed relatively poorly so they almost have to do better. Intel is committing significant shareholder resources towards their vision of the future (Merced, billion PCs, etc.). Not everyone is convinced of their vision, so the multiple suffers. Larry