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To: Sowbug who wrote (47005)	5/15/1998 8:21:00 PM
From: Joseph Colombo	Respond to of 61433

<<I'd be interested to hear whether people think this is consolidation in preparation for a healthy summer rally, or the bull market running out of steam.>> Sowbug, I was thinking what the street is going to do, and every time I realize that the street is us. So what do I feel. I feel this is a buying opportunity. Why. Because I'm an average guy and I'm buying. Better then that, If I don't buy and the market goes up, I feel like I missed something. So next time I make sure I buy. I don't feel like selling. I'm a babyboomer, and like a Squirrel, I'm Squirreling everything away in my favorite place. The market.It must me Instinct because I didn't feel this way a couple of years back. Listen, I know that this rambling is not rocket science and just a gut feeling, but I trust it. My portfolio has seen a lot of red the last couple of weeks. Is it possible that the so called correction is already over? It's only my opinion. Joe

To: Sowbug who wrote (47005)	5/15/1998 8:52:00 PM
From: gbh	Respond to of 61433

I'd be interested to hear whether people think this is consolidation in preparation for a healthy summer rally, or the bull market running out of steam. Sowbug, I think we will continue in a choppy market. Downside maybe 8600 (if even that low) and upside of maybe 9300 with this range slowly increasing. The bias will be up, albeit slowly. There's just too much money flowing in, and no real place for fund managers to safely deploy for the forseeable future. And with most of these managers lagging the indices, they can't afford to sit on cash. Remember, most of the "experts" were predicting a 10% year at best. If we finish this year up 15% (roughly where we are now), it would probably be considered a healthy year. But this means 7 more months of basically no gains. Would this be the end of the bull. I don't think so. Just a well deserved rest. Right now its definitely a traders market. I'm moving in this direction. I'm also about 50% in cash as of today, having got out of BAY about even. Just MHO. Gary

To: Sowbug who wrote (47005)	5/15/1998 10:16:00 PM
From: Dennis R. Duke	Respond to of 61433

Wow, Number 8. I am surprised. I think MCOM will pull back after yesterday's earnings. So it won't be for long. Dennis

To: Sowbug who wrote (47005)	5/16/1998 12:55:00 AM
From: Darren	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 61433

I'd be interested to hear whether people think this is consolidation in preparation for a healthy summer rally, or the bull market running out of steam. Take this with a big salt lick... IMO, we are headed for a correction, but not a slam-the-stock-market-down correction, rather a painful, kind of slow, move down for maybe 8 days. There may be a revival in the middle of it which will muddle the picture, but say it goes 7%. Then, just like it never happened, the market will take off towards that ever-present 10,000 goal. Once investors get scared again by the lofty heights, we will drag along through August, September and then I think all hell is going to break loose this October. Why, because history tells us it's always October. I think this October will be the end of the current bull market cycle, but I don't think we will have a panic drop, rather a two to four year consolidation where we might actually see 7,500. Then it's off to the races again until 2006, when the first year of baby boomers turn 60 (maybe a year before) and they start dumping all that money from those IRA accounts... It is absolutely crucial that we have a small bear market and another large bull market before 2006 to make sure the boomers have a happy golf-resort vacation retirement lifestyle because the next generation can't handle the bill otherwise. Without a slowdown, we'd be talking about a 16 year bull market, and it just ain't possible...at least it's never been done before. So, before the end of May, you'd better be loaded up with stocks -- and I don't mean those d*gshit stocks that get flaunted around SI, I mean core stuff where you can make money through a bear market; CPQ, INTC, DELL, MSFT, CSCO, DIS, NKE, GPS, etc. Franchises, monopolies, and sure things...not "possibly" good stocks like ASND. And before October, you have a huge decision to make. "Should I stay or should I go now, if I stay there will be trouble, and if I go there will be trouble..." -The Clash Short term, lock and load. Long term, watch your back. That, my friends, is a diatribe showing that a person can have one too many Sierra-Nevada's...and still type. I bet I really helped you out for Monday, huh?

To: Sowbug who wrote (47005)	5/16/1998 11:16:00 AM
From: jach	Respond to of 61433

<<two of our three major indices have remained negative nearly throughout. I'd be interested to hear whether people think this is consolidation in preparation for a healthy summer rally, or the bull market running out of steam.>> imo, mkt dynamics have now make it impossible to balance and weight the limits of ups/downs for current and potententail mkt impacting news. Some key dynamics that are new includes: - heavy focused towards 500 index or total mkt returns - Web and online trading, makes possible easy and prompt trading to all types of people - cost of trading, drastically reduced because of automation and competition - mkt dips are seen as buying opportunity and seems to be working up till now for the last 2 yrs - major corporation focus towards returns to investors (at any cost ) Easy web trading plus very low cost enables a large pool of small investors to participate in trading of small quantity and still make some profit. 10,000 buying 100 shares each during a mkt dip is not an insiginificant impact. As always, the basic elements, such as interest rate, global stability, national politics, corp earnings etc. etc. will still play key roles. But, the overall impact is unknown when these new factors of mkt dynamics are added to the basic elements.