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To: Mark Calp who wrote (2203)5/16/1998 8:53:00 AM
From: the Chief  Respond to of 8117
 
Hi Mark. Excellent points! I agree wholeheartedly. TA is most effective when "explaining" what is about to happen. My belief for the event driven stocks or stocks that have already ramped up on the "breaking news" is that TA in isolation never seems to give me consistent results. I find sloshing over to fundamentals a good idea in the latter stages of the breakout. Then reverting back to TA when things don't pan out. A good example was Dalton (DAL-ASE) they are part of the Strachan consortium property. The rumour was that they hit it big on a gas well. The stock started to ramp up and got to .45c on the pending news. The group of companies that control Strachan decided to declare "tighthole status". Which means they don't have to tell their shareholders anything for a year. On that basis it was a good idea to switch to TA.

As you say, everybody has a way of doing their homework. The only thing that bothered me about previous analysis by "obvious" shorters or stock depressers was that they came on this thread attempting to show that TA was the only solution and that "disaster" was imminent. If they had thrown in their theory with the rest and let the "cards fall where they may" then others would not have been so aggressive, including myself.

Always nice to hear from you Mark

the Chief



To: Mark Calp who wrote (2203)5/17/1998 11:46:00 AM
From: Gary H  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8117
 
Mark, I began looking at the markets strictly from a TA point of view with the notion that all the fundamentals will show up in the TA.
I still believe this in large part but have also taken on a broader scope of things in general. I could best describe this with a couple of quote from Jim Dines.
" The two methods are radically different: One studies cause, the other effect. One discusses the probability or potentiality, the other discusses the results." "when cause is unclear, it is only sensible to deduce cause from effect, and that is the methodology of TA. If it too is unclear then both TA and FA should be used."

JD also states; "Since future stock market movements are not totally reliable, and since Technical Indicators do not consider causation, the sane approach to the stock market is to apply a combination of both."

Cheers,