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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (22143)	5/15/1998 8:36:00 PM
From: Timelord	Respond to of 95453

Elmer, I agree with your analysis of MDCO and its long term prospects, but beware the slippery slopes of oil & gas prices. Don't know if you were here in December, but there isn't a single thread member that would have bet on $12 oil. Not saying its going to happen, but the possibility is there. You may want to reexamine this analysis: 4) The shallow water GOM dayrates are holding fairly firm driven by good natural gas prices. It is possible this could change given that the premium jackups are coming into this arena to find work. However, I am betting that the premium jackup dayrates came down to get to a more appropriate markup to the under 250 ft. jackups and the dayrate impact on the shallow jackup operators will be minimal. in view of this chart: iepstein.com Prices are very unhealthy, and while we all know that the long term outlook is rosy, the prices of the stocks will act otherwise regardless of the fundamentals because the market focuses on oil prices. Lesson painfully learned since last December... Alex