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To: TREND1 who wrote (33527)	5/15/1998 9:39:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

larry, how would you feel about a company's management that caused an increase in their share price by misleading investors about their competitors inventories and then pulled the plug by telling only a few of their best buds what was up? i can't believe these guys don't get sued. i guess their lawyers are pretty good. i think it is criminal. this explains the majority of mu's price movement since december, 1997. since they misled people and the game is over we go lower to the teens where we would have been if management was able to actually make an accurate call (or, possibly, stopped lying) and not so slimey. bet all those people, read suckers, who bought those converts are really glad they bought so much hot air. think we'll convert at $70 anytime soon? ;-)

To: TREND1 who wrote (33527)	5/16/1998 10:50:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Larry, two "gap down" days in a row in MU, an unusual circumstance. Technically, MU is ripe not only to test 22 but to break it. What are the historical data saying about closing gaps (how long if at all) when two of them are stacked together? Zeev

To: TREND1 who wrote (33527)	5/16/1998 12:07:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Larry, It isn't just synthetic positions that move the stock, it is all option positions. Expiration day used to mean more than it means today. Now, most major players are out by Wednesday afternoon, so you might want to look at expiration week more than expiration day. What the final tally shows is the imbalances in the positions of traders. Since every trade must have somebody on the other side, it also reveals where brokerage firms are vs. the buyside. For example, drops during expiration week, when there is no hard news backing them (which certainly wasn't true for any tech stocks this week, as it was another week of disaster for pcs, the engine of tech growth), usually means that brokers are bearish and the institutions are bullish. As the buyers of last resort, the brokers get put a lot of stock which they punt quickly. Since they usually have synthetic positions which they unwind, the put and call premiums reflect this move in the price of the stock. Come Monday, the long and wrong institutions reestablish their longs in further out months, or, more commonly, the need for brokers to unwind before the weekend becomes less frantic. That often causes an artificial pop for a day or two. But, once again, this is only in the absence of fundamental news. And, of course, up moves are just the opposite, as brokers become sellers of last resort and buy manically to cover before the weekend. Monday, the institutions come in to reestablish and prices usually drop a bit. That is the theory, but it has become very muted lately because everyone has caught on to the tendencies. It is like the dividend cycle. High dividend stocks (yes, this is a story from the old days, as there are no such thing any more <G>) usually rose the week before they went ex-dividend and then declined on ex-dividend day, as there was a huge tax advantage for corporations to give up capital to earn the dividend. I used to take advantage of this by using seller's options, which allowed me to sell my stock before ex-dividend date but deliver after record date, achieving the higher prices of the run up the week before and re-buying after it got cheap again. This strategy made The St. Paul a huge amount of income. Now, everyone knows about the tendency and it has been greatly muted. If you beat Wall Street on the head long enough, they eventually discover where the club is coming from. <G> MB