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To: DR. MEADE who wrote (7071)5/15/1998 10:30:00 PM
From: DR. MEADE  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10903
 

To: Jeffrey S. Mitchell (11574 )
From: SOROS Friday, May 15 1998 9:33PM ET
Reply # of 11584
G8 urged to act to avoid millennium
computer chaos

LONDON, May 15 (Reuters) - Leaders at the G8 summit this weekend will
discuss how to combat possible fallout from the millennium computer
bomb, and industry experts said on Friday action is crucial if disaster
is to be avoided.

World industry is now so reliant on computers that a rash of failures
could cause economic disruption. Some experts say this could tip the
world into recession or worse.

Millions of people dependent on state pensions, unemployment payments
and welfare could quickly find themselves without funds if government
computerised payment systems break down.

Public utilities providing power and water supplies are said to be at
risk if computers across the world crash at midnight on December 31,
1999.

"We say there will be potentially significant economic disruption, and
if we are right, governments have to prepare contingency plans," Geoff
Unwin, vice-chairman of French information technology and consulting
group Cap Gemini SA told Reuters.

Computers are exposed to a problem that sounds almost too trivial to be
true. In the 1970s and 1980s, computer programmers saved what was then
valuable space abbreviating years to two digits - like 97 or 85 -
knowing that this would cause mayhem in 2000. Computers would be unable
to make sense of a four digit number and would crash or start pumping
out erroneous data.

But because of the fast moving nature of information technology, there
was a widely held belief that this problem would be addressed many years
before 2000 dawned.

This assumption was false, and companies and governments around the
world are scurrying to fix the problem.

Governments have been slower than industry to address problems with
their own computers.

"Lots of governments talk about awareness, but the money they are
spending on their own IT systems is not nearly enough. Britain is
spending 100 million (pounds) on bug busters, but 700 million on the
millennium dome. What are they taking more seriously," said Nick Jones,
analyst with U.S. high technology consultancy Gartner Group.

The millennium dome is a huge, temporary structure being built on the
banks of the River Thames in London to celebrate the turn of the
century.

But Britain is considered by experts to be second only to the U.S. in
preparedness for computer bomb problems. Japan and Germany are said to
be laggards.

Simon Reeve, author of the book, "The Millennium Bomb" has a more
extreme view. "Unless the G8 governments mobilise their work forces as
if for war, the dawn of the new millennium will herald an immediate
breakdown in global telecommunications and massive problems for the
Internet. Then we will see the cumulative effects of business
failures gradually taking their toll on the global economy," Reeve said.

Edward Yardeni, chief economist at merchant bankers Deutsche Morgan
Grenfell, calls for more than just words from the assembled G8
statesmen. In a recent article in the Wall Street Journal Yardeni said
there was a 60 percent chance of a recession because of the computer
bomb, with the possibility of a depression.

Yardeni called for the formation of a Year 2000 Alliance with funding of
$100 billion.

Cap Gemini's Unwin believes that as well as general economic disruption,
the most vulnerable are at high risk. "The world is heading for a
dangerous place unless action starts to happen. The sick, pensioners,
the unemployed what can they do if they can't physically be paid," Unwin
said.

I remain,

SOROS

ps thanks Murray