SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Darren who wrote (47011)5/16/1998 2:56:00 AM
From: djane  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 61433
 
IBD article. Cisco's Leader Sees Challenges In Voice-Data

Date: 5/18/98
Author: Michele Hostetler

Cisco Systems Inc. proved there's still life in
the networking market.

Many networking companies languished this
spring. But Cisco sales rose 33% to $2.18
billion in its third fiscal quarter ended April 25
compared with the year-ago quarter.
Excluding one-time gains and charges, profit
rose 35% to $483.2 million, or 45 cents a
diluted share.

But the largest maker of networking gear
faces challenges. Cisco CEO John Chambers
spoke with IBD after the company revealed
its quarterly financials.

IBD:

What does Cisco's strong quarter signify to
you?

Chambers:

It's a traditionally challenging quarter for us.
We never have pulled away from our
competitors at the pace that we are currently.
That's the good news.

The challenge is that we're facing a whole
new set of competitors in data-voice-video
integration. If you add up those total markets,
we're less than 10% market share. If you're
an optimist, you look at how much
opportunity there is. If you're a pessimist, you
say you've got some good challenges coming
your way.

IBD:

What's the update on possible alliances with
telecom companies Lucent Technologies Inc.
and Northern Telecom Ltd. ?

Chambers:

We (go) into (negotiations for) alliances
knowing that there will be at least two to
three steps forward and one back. Lucent
didn't work, and we said at the beginning that
we'd give it 50-50 odds.

IBD:

What happened?

Chambers:

Several factors. They're a good company, but
their culture is dramatically different than ours.
The more we worked with them, candidly,
the less effective both of us were. There
wasn't good trust between either side. The
chemistry match was not good. It goes back
to if you can't keep your products . . . from
overlapping too much, you're not going to
have a partnership.

IBD:

And what about a possible Nortel alliance?

Chambers:

Too early to tell. NEC and Alcatel are
working reasonably well. We're going to try
to do 10 to 15 of these (alliances) and realize
that probably about one-third will fail.

Remember, only two have been done well in
the history of the industry, and that's Intel-
Microsoft and HP-Canon. Time will tell if
we're successful (with our alliances). I fully
anticipate there will be setbacks along the
way, and successes.

IBD:

What's your response to observers who say
Layer 3 switches - a product that combines
the speed of switches with the power of
routers -could take away Cisco's traditional
router sales?

Chambers:

We've never had any religion when it comes
to technology. We plan to lead in Layer 3 as
we have done in all other technologies. The
market can go whichever way it wants to.
Our experience has been now that people
understand Layer 3 strategy . . . it's an
end-to-end sale and strategy, where the
Layer 3 products reside in the network and
where our traditional products do. It's a
pretty neat fit.

IBD:

What are some hot areas for Cisco this
summer?

Chambers:

I think how we do in data-voice-video
integration. How we continue to expand into
small and medium-sized businesses. Do we
continue to have success there?

Then you'll see in the fall the rollout of our
consumer strategy. While that's probably a
year, year and a half away from being a
revenue impact, we're trying to signal people
where we're going.

Then I think you'll see us move into a different
relationship with customers, if we do our job
well. We'll move away from a strategic
vendor to more of a strategic partner.

It's almost like an IBM of 30 years ago,
where you understand not only how to make
the technology work, but you understand
what applications have the biggest payback
(and) how you work together to allow the
customers to gain competitive advantage . . .
as opposed to just giving them the
technology.

(C) Copyright 1998 Investors Business Daily,
Inc.
Metadata: CSCO LU NIPNY INTC MSFT HP
CANNY IBM I/3574 I/4890 I/3621 I/3675 I/3270
I/1381 I/1003 I/3573 E/IBD E/SN1 E/TECH



To: Darren who wrote (47011)5/16/1998 3:03:00 AM
From: djane  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 61433
 
Interesting SS7 remarks from ASND Yahoo thread
(yeah, I was slumming....)

messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com

messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com


Message 15183 of 15266
Reply

Ken,
From: Layer3Ent
May 13 1998
10:41PM EDT

Nice post:

Note to the VoIP technology; this will note be confined to on-net IP voice
applications as you described. VoIP AND their SS7 signaling will allow for regular
"hand-set" voice services to ride over the internet, or any production frame relay /
ATM network (ie Ascend's carrier customer base). This is more than huge, the
whole techology is the single most critical step in replacing the 120 year old
telephony network (a 10 trillion - that's with a "T" investment).

Message 15214 of 15266 from Layer3Ent
Reply

Ken...
Layer3Ent
May 14 1998
5:33PM EDT

Thanks for your answer. It does make sense, but it also seems to be a self fullfilling
prophisy...

As for SS7, it stands for Switching System 7, and its used by the world's phone
company switch systems to "communicate". It is the seventh version of this protocol
(hence the name... phone companies are so original). And yes it is one of the key
signaling features you need when your replacing a 120 year old $10 trillion dollar
investment. Not a bad market to be in wouldn't you say?

From: Layer3Ent



To: Darren who wrote (47011)5/16/1998 3:13:00 AM
From: djane  Respond to of 61433
 
Microsoft Investor. Can Cabletron turn it around? [No ASND reference]

investor.msn.com

The networker has tumbled into Wall
Street's dumpster, but its prospects are
improving. A key acquisition -- or takeover
-- could reverse its fortunes.

By Howard Isenstein

Computer-networking companies enjoy
stratospheric valuations on Wall Street
because growth and profits in their
industry continue to explode. But woe to
the company that disappoints. Just ask
Cabletron Systems, Inc. (CS), whose
stock price has plummeted to less than a
third of its 52-week high and is trading at
1.6 times revenues -- a fifth of its peers'
valuation.

It's appropriate now to wonder whether
investors and analysts have overreacted.
Sure, Cabletron needs to overcome a
number of major problems, but it has
recently put a strategic plan in place to
address them and it has a solid brand
image and customer base -- as well as
leading-edge products coming out of the
pipeline.
Charts

Cabletron vs. the
Networking Industry, 1-year

"The Street thinks the company is a piece
of junk," said William Becklean, an
analyst at Tucker Anthony, a regional
brokerage in Boston. "One of the bets I'm
willing to make is that there's a lot of
value there, although it does have
problems."

The Rochester, N.H.-based company
makes local-area and wide-area network
switches, routers, software, and other
products that allow computers to talk to
each other -- and unlike a lot of
investment darlings today, has racked up
years of growing profits. In its fiscal year
ending February 1997, for instance, the
company earned $222.1 million, nearly
double its 1994 earnings of $119.2 million.
But Cabletron then spilled barrels of red
ink in its final quarter of fiscal 1998 --
racking up a loss of $263.4 million due to
lower sales, reduced gross margins and
inventory-related charges.
Details

Company Facts

1-yr Chart

*Highlights

* Earnings Estimates

* Advisor FYI

The sagging fortunes of the company
were evident a year ago as the company's
strength of hard-driving execution became
hindered by blunders of strategic
planning, including a disorganized sales
force and holes in its product line that
pushed customers into the arms of its
competitors. To remedy the situation,
Cabletron last August hired Donald B.
Reed as chief executive to create a plan
that called for, among other items,
instituting stronger management controls
and bolstering international sales and
distribution.

Reed also arranged the acquisition of
Yago Systems, which developed a
state-of-the art router that could power the
company's comeback. Analysts say that
Reed, a former Nynex Corp. executive,
succeeded in his task. But on March 30,
the company announced that Reed had
quit and would be replaced by chairman
Craig Benson. The company declined to
make Benson or other executives
available for comment.

Customers and technology
Benson has at least three things going for
him in his quest to turn the company
around, Becklean said. For starters, there
is the company's strong base of
customers, including Chase Manhattan
Bank, which used the company's
products to integrate its merger with
Chemical Bank computers.
Details

Company Facts

1-yr Chart

*Highlights

Details

Company Facts

1-yr Chart

*Highlights

Next is the company's technology. The
Yago acquisition fills a key product hole
at the high end of the market with its
SmartSwitch router, Becklean said. While
the router is limited to Internet protocol
(IP) -- compared with competitors' routers
that accept IP and other protocols -- IP is
becoming the standard that most
companies and makers are moving
toward.

"Cabletron has a completely new
opportunity to leapfrog Bay Networks
(BAY) and Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
with the SmartSwitch router" if a few big
customers talk the product up and
convince others to give it a try, said Glenn
Gabriel Ben-Josef of Clear Thinking
Research, a network consulting firm in
Cambridge, Mass. SmartSwitch is
already being shipped and may add $50
million in revenue this year, Becklean
said. Just last week, the company
announced next-generation additions to
the SmartSwitch product line that were
well received in the trade press.

The company is filling other holes in its
product line. On My 6, Cabletron
announced its SmartVoice Technology --
which allows computer networks to merge
voice and data traffic onto a single
network, reducing long-distance charges
in the process. And on April 6 Cabletron
released a family of asynchronous
transfer mode (ATM) switches, which the
company says are 50 times faster and far
cheaper than the competition's products.

As for software, the company's Spectrum
Enterprise Management product is "very
strong," Becklean said. The software
allows network managers to control
networks comprised of any type of
hardware, so Cabletron still has an in with
potential customers using competitors'
hardware products. Indeed, nearly 40% of
the hardware being used with Spectrum
software is non-Cabletron.

Getting things under control
In terms of management, Cabletron is well
on the way to implementing a new sales,
marketing, and returns forecasting
system that should give the company
much better financial and business
control, Becklean said. And by reducing
staff and consolidating facilities, Cabletron
has already cut expenses by an
annualized $40 million and believes that it
can increase this annual savings by an
additional $20 million.
Details

Company Facts

1-yr Chart

*Highlights

On the sales and distribution front, the
company's Feb. 7 acquisition of Digital
Equipment Corp.'s (DEC)
network-products business instantly gave
the company a presence in the
telecommunications and
Internet-service-provider markets as well
as international sales muscle, a key goal
of Reed's. It also put the company directly
on the radar of Compaq Computer Corp.
(CPQ), which bought Digital last year and
could well purchase Cabletron to beef up
its networking business.

Becklean acknowledged that the
company faced very strong competitors
that have more powerful brand equity --
but he doesn't buy the argument that
customers want a solution from a single
company.

"I think customers today, especially as
backbones move toward IP, are much
more willing to buy best-of-breed
products," Becklean said. The
SmartSwitch "has the potential to be best
of breed."

Opportunity to buy?
Becklean, however, is among the few
analysts who are bullish on the company,
which is one reason its stock price is so
depressed and why there is an
opportunity to get into what would
otherwise be a very pricey stock.
Analysts Peter Lieu of Adams Harkness
and Matthew Barzowskas of First Albany
Corp. think that the company is going
through a major transition and has been
slow to make adjustments while market
leader Cisco remains a highly focused
and formidable competitor.
Details

Cabletron
Analyst Info
* Earnings Estimates

* Recommendations

*Earnings Surprise

*Consensus EPS Trend

*Earnings Growth Rates

Cabletron does not need to overtake
Cisco as the market leader in order for its
stock price to start recovering. It just
needs to show that it is capable of
delivering strong products and making
customers happy. When will that happen?
No one knows for sure, but Becklean
predicts that once the company's sales
numbers start to show improvement, as
the SmartSwitch ships in significant
quantities, the company's stock price will
come back -- most likely in the fall.

"It may not get back to where its peers
are (on a price-earnings basis), but it
certainly will be higher than it is now,"
Becklean said.

At least one other analyst agrees. Keith
R. Bossey of Robert M. Cohen & Co.
initiated coverage of Cabletron on April 9
with a "speculative buy" recommendation
and set a 12-month target price of $28 per
share, up almost 100% from about $14.25
today.

"While recent financial performance and
management uncertainty raises concerns,
Cabletron does provide us with what we
feel to be an unprecedented opportunity to
invest in a firmly entrenched networking
sales-and-marketing force at less than
half industry valuation multiples," said
Bossey in a prepared release.

The point of maximum pessimism about a
company is usually the best time for value
investors to make their move. For those
who have shunned high-tech stocks due
to their high valuations, Cabletron may
just be the ticket for getting into the
sector on the cheap.

Links
Discuss It
Email Howard Isenstein
Email the Editors
Product Support

Top

Terms of Use, and Privacy Policy. c 1996-98 Microsoft Corporation and/or its
suppliers. All rights reserved.

Quotes supplied by Standard & Poor's ComStock, Inc. and are
delayed at least 20 minutes.
NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ index data are provided real time.

Investor's editorial goal is to provide a forum for investment ideas. Our articles,
columns, and other features should not be construed as investment advice, nor
does their appearance imply an endorsement by Microsoft of any specific security
or trading strategy. An investor's best course of action must be based on individual
circumstances.



To: Darren who wrote (47011)5/16/1998 3:21:00 AM
From: djane  Respond to of 61433
 
5/15/98 NY Times. Despite Merger Mania, Phone Companies Lag in Internet Services
[Just think if the RBOCs decide to compete....]

By MATT RICHTEL

nytimes.com

When it comes to the Internet, the industry scuttlebutt is that the
Baby Bells have dropped the ball.

The proposed $62 billion merger between SBC Communications Inc.
and Ameritech -- brethren from the breakup of AT&T 14 years ago --
highlights the spreading influence of the Bells in local phone markets.
Indirectly, it also underscores where the companies have been absent: they have made meager inroads in the Internet access arena.

The numbers seem to bear out the contention
of industry analysts. Presuming the merger
goes through, the four regional Bell operating
companies together provide 135.5 million
telephone access lines (U.S. West - 16 million;
Bell Atlantic - 40 million; SBC/Ameritech - 56.3 million; BellSouth -
23.2 million). However, together they connect fewer than 1 million
consumers and business to the Internet.


"They've been distracted by regulatory agencies, distracted by long
distance and cable companies, distracted by international forays," said
Abhi Chaki, an analyst with Jupiter Communications in New York.
"The Internet has not been a priority for them, but it definitely should
be."

What makes these circumstances glaring, according to Chaki and other
analysts, is that local phone companies seem well suited to offer Internet
access.
They already have high brand recognition, they understand
telecommunications networks and they have an ongoing relationship
with millions of customers.

Officials at the Baby Bell companies do not concede that they have
been slow on the uptake. "We got into this business in 1997 and we've
been in this market for over a year now," said Jim Ducay, vice president
of sales and marketing for Ameritech Interactive Media Services, the
Internet arm of Ameritech Corp. "Before that, the Internet was driven
by content providers," like America Online.

Larry Plumb, a spokesman for Bell Atlantic, which started offering
Internet access in 1996, said, "We look at this as a long baseball game
and we figured maybe we got in in the second inning. We think we have
the financial wherewithal to be a big player."
[Well, say hello to Worldcom, Qwest and Level 3....]

Last Tuesday, the same day as the announcement of the merger, Pacific
Bell Internet Services (owned by SBC) and Southwestern Bell Internet
Services announced that together, they have 300,000 Internet
customers. That represents a 28 percent growth rate since January of
this year and 333 percent since the start of 1997, according to the
companies.

Meanwhile, the battle cry among the baby Bells is that they are looking forward, and some of them insist they have a natural advantage in the
form of Digital Subscriber Line technology. DSL is a technology which
can be used to modify traditional copper wire -- which the telephone
companies already have in place -- to transmit much greater volumes of
data. It carries data at 256 Kilibits per second, which is almost eight
times faster than conventional 33.6 K modems. The phone companies
contend they have much of the technology in place to deploy DSL, and
a handful of related technologies, such as ADSL, Asymetric Data
Subscriber Line.

However, the phone companies are still struggling with how to keep the data from deteriorating over long distances. Further, while there has been much talk about DSL, there has been little action. For one thing, telephone companies have to install equipment in some older locations to make the lines DSL capable. The number of DSL users is fewer than 10,000, according to some industry sources.

The Bells insist that is about to change. Ameritech, for example, says it will have services that use DSL accessible in 70 percent of its market within 3 years; US West claims it will offer DSL in 40 cities by June, according to Joe Bartlett, associate director of Internet Research for the Yankee Group. Bell Atlantic plans to deploy DSL technology in the third quarter of 1998, a company spokesman said. The service can cost twice as much as typical Internet access -- but, in addition to being faster, it is always connected to the Internet, so there is no need to dial in.

"This is our competitive response to cable modems," said Plumb, the spokesman for Bell Atlantic.

Bartlett remains skeptical, and he thinks time is running out for phone companies to catch up. "If they continually ignore the market, they'll have to come in and steal customers, which is much tougher than getting them the first time," Bartlett said.

Presently, the biggest player in the Internet access market is America
Online, which has 11 million subscribers, according to Jupiter
Communications. Jupiter reports that the next biggest players are the
Microsoft Network, with 1.85 million members, AOL-owned
CompuServe, which has 1.4 million subscribers; and long distance
carrier AT&T, with 1.1 million subscribers.

There are growing rewards to be reaped. Revenue from data-related
services -- such as video conferencing, telemedicine, and Internet
access -- is rising 30 to 40 percent a year, according Bartlett. He said
that figure compares to only a 10 percent annual increase in revenue
from voice related services.


The Bells have their defenders too, who point out that while the Internet
market is growing, it still pales in comparison to the revenue generated
by local phone service. Dan Taylor, managing director of
telecommunications for Boston-based Aberdeen Group Inc., said the
Internet is only one small piece of potential revenue, and one the phone
companies can readily attain when they are ready to jump in. "For
them," Taylor said, "it's a trivial task."

But DSL notwithstanding, the Bells themselves claim they face some
regulatory obstacles that make it difficult for them to compete in the
Internet access market. For one, anti-monopoly laws preclude them
from carrying voice or data traffic between their big metropolitan areas,
which are known as Local Access Transport Areas. The idea is to
prevent the Bells from competing as long distance carriers.

It also has the impact of forcing local telephone companies to buy bandwidth on another company's network -- something of a middleman -- when connecting customers to the Internet, according to Plumb, the spokesman for Bell Atlantic. The upshot, Plumb said, is that the Bells cannot presently create their own national Internet backbones.

Related Sites
Following are links to the external Web sites mentioned in this article. These
sites are not part of The New York Times on the Web, and The Times has no
control over their content or availability. When you have finished visiting any of
these sites, you will be able to return to this page by clicking on your Web
browser's "Back" button or icon until this page reappears.

SBC Communications Inc.

Ameritech

U.S. West

Bell Atlantic

BellSouth

Jupiter Communications

Yankee Group

America Online

Microsoft Network

CompuServe

Aberdeen Group

Matt Richtel at mrichtel@nytimes.com welcomes your comments
and suggestions.

Home | Sections | Contents | Search | Forums | Help

Copyright 1998 The New York Times Company




To: Darren who wrote (47011)5/16/1998 3:26:00 AM
From: djane  Respond to of 61433
 
China Sees Huge Demand For Net Content

techweb.com

(05/14/98; 5:21 p.m. EST)
By Mo Krochmal, TechWeb

MONTREAL -- China will have built sufficient network
infrastructure to support widespread Internet use by
2000, but there will be a shortage of content for
Chinese users, an official from Shanghai said Thursday.

The world's most populous country is captivated by the
Internet and is quickly building its communications
infrastructure to support faster connections, said
Rong-Xi Tan of the Science and Technology
Commission of Shanghai. Tan joined a panel at the
Mulitmedia and Internet International Market
conference and trade show here in Montreal.

Industry analysts said China is connecting more than 20 million new telephone lines every year, installing fiber optic trunk lines and cellular telephone systems as well as building a domestic satellite network.

"In China, even the taxi drivers know about the
Internet," said Tan. "It's still very young, but we are
building the infrastructure."

Three million Chinese will have access to the Internet by
the end of this year, only a fraction of total population of
1.2 billion. Those using the Internet are mainly
government officials, technology buffs, academics, and
business people. Most connect to the Internet through
Chinanet, which is run by the Ministry of Information
Industries.

Internet use costs $2 an hour for individuals who have
paid a $12 to $14 fee for installation. The average user
is young -- 80 percent are between 21 and 35 -- works
in IT, and earns an average monthly salary between $50
and $250 per month. Thirty-six percent of all Internet
users are in Beijing.

Tan said the government encourages businesses to use
the Internet and establish a presence on the Web. The
government is also encouraging the development of
software and formatted fonts to ease the use of Chinese
characters for digital communication.

"Everything on the Web used to be in English," Tan
said. "In China, there is going to be a big boom at the
beginning of the next century, and content development
will be even more important."

Surprisingly, Tan said he also believes China needs to
adopt a more lenient policy toward Internet content.
"The regulations on the Internet, they need to let it go,"
he said.



To: Darren who wrote (47011)5/16/1998 3:28:00 AM
From: djane  Respond to of 61433
 
IDC: Worldwide sub-$1,000 PC market set to boom
[Should be fairly bullish for ASND]

By Nancy Weil
IDG News Service, 5/14/98

nwfusion.com

The market for PCs priced below $1,000 will
double by 2001, hitting 25% of desktop PC
shipments worldwide, according to a report
released yesterday by International Data Corp.

Using forecasts for processors, assumptions
about machine configurations at different
processor speeds, and trends in commercial and
consumer PC demands, the Framingham,
Mass.-based market research firm sees a
booming market for the sub-$1,000 machines,
which last year accounted for 12% of the market.

Dropping component prices, vendor price cuts
and the rise in Internet use are propelling the
market and will continue doing so in the near
future. With slow, steady growth expected among
commercial users, the real takeoff will come in the
consumer sector, according to the market
researcher.

Consumers in particular are clamoring for the
low-priced machines. "They're interested even
today, but their upgrade cycles are more
considered," said Roger Kay, an IDC analyst of
the commercial market. "They just move slower."

Although some PC vendors aren't as thrilled with
the burgeoning under-$1,000 market as
competitors who have jumped quickly, there is no
indication the trend will abate.

"Intel still has price margins in the 50% range,"
Kay said, noting that there's still room for chip
prices to drop. Moreover, Moore's Law - regular releases of ever faster
processors - will continue to hold true, allowing vendors to offer
machines priced below $1,000 and operating on speedier chips, he said.

The under-$1,000 market could even help vendors come closer to
achieving the widespread use characteristic of television sets and
telephones, which in the U.S. are found in nearly all homes.

"The holy grail of the PC industry is to get penetration figures like that,"
Kay said.

Feedback | Network World, Inc. | Sponsor Index
Marketplace Index | How to Advertise | Copyright

Home | NetFlash | This Week | Industry/Stocks
Buyer's Guides/Tests | Net Resources | Opinions | Careers
Seminars & Events | Product Demos/Info
Audio Primers | IntraNet




To: Darren who wrote (47011)5/17/1998 12:06:00 AM
From: Tim Luke  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 61433
 
Next week four things will happen:

1. ASND will hit 50

2. PKGP will go from 7 cents to 3/16

3. Uncle Alan will leave rates alone

4. Dell will beat the estimate AGAIN

PS. The only stock that I have ever recommended to this thread to buy was OSI and the stock has doubled since then.

PKGP is a 7 cent stock that will be see one dollar + this year!



To: Darren who wrote (47011)5/17/1998 12:10:00 AM
From: Tim Luke  Respond to of 61433
 
WOW! Darren is bullish on asnd now? I'm glad you finally see it my way.