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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kent Sarikaya who wrote (1942)	5/16/1998 11:20:00 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2754

Kent, I agree - the techs looked bad this week. As you say, a lot of uncertainty. I think AMAT did a marvelous job of painting their position and outlook for the future as both a "glass half full" and a "glass half empty". The gave reasons for both points of view and as a result nothing much happened (at least to them). The tech action on Friday was bad. I scanned the charts real quickly last night and the trend was really down for the week. Strangely, what I would call the weaker stocks in the group did OK and the stronger stocks really took a hit. Obviously, at some point the situation will turn-around. The question is when? In the meantime it seems as if the group is trying to find another bottom. We are fast approaching the middle of 1998. At the moment, a turn-around for the techs doesn't seem to be in the near term future. I keep thinking the present situation may continue until early 1999. By then the future may look brighter and the group will move again like they did in 1995 and 1997. The semi-equips may be on a 2 year cycle - 4 months of good times when they nearly double as a group, and then they spend the rest of the time giving all the gains back (in a big hurry), but mostly they "sulk" at a depressed level waiting for the next catalyst to start through the cycle all over again. Don W.