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To: Jurgen Trautmann who wrote (2905)	5/16/1998 12:17:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 11051

JT .. at this time I'm just doing DCA of puts. Have never played index options before .. but I think that it may be time now. Long?? not at all! Shifted 401k to cash about a month ago. Gersh

To: Jurgen Trautmann who wrote (2905)	5/16/1998 12:33:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 11051

JT .. Lisa was kind enough to post this in another location: Message 4483488 Gersh

To: Jurgen Trautmann who wrote (2905)	5/16/1998 10:50:00 PM
From: Marc Schiler	Respond to of 11051

Jurgen, I think your comments on using indices to understand long term behavior are quite right; the contents of the index continually change, and thus the measurement is measuring somewhat different things at different times. As a gross indicator of an economy, it is still an interesting measure, but more technical analysis is disrupted by the changes in content. However, I note that you are mostly (80%) in cash now (from an earlier post.) You must think that there is a pullback due, or at least a decrease in the rate of climb. Your general strategy is buying leaps, and the Compaq leaps, for example, have done very well. Is the portion you have invested primarily in leaps, and thus somewhat like a 50/50 split between cash and a normal position holding the stocks themselves? Or, do you really think the boom is slowing down? If so, is it an intuitive feeling, or do you have some fundamental indicators? Regards, MS

To: Jurgen Trautmann who wrote (2905)	5/17/1998 11:30:00 PM
From: Berney	Respond to of 11051

BAMBI UPDATE - AN ANALYSIS OF AN INDEX Most TA first acknowledges the axiom that is best to trade in the direction of the trend. (duh!) The problem is that, according to John Murphy (Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets), 1/3 to 1/2 of the time the Market is not Trending. These are the times that provide great difficulty to trader and investor alike. Thus, I must disagree. The importance of the "intermediate-term" direction of the Market Index cannot be understated. Then, as Steve has noted, the direction (i.e. health) of the sector Index should be noted before taking a position in an individual security. Was there any doubt that all box makers were going to have a problem at the end of the week when HWP issued their warning Wednesday night? Today's Sunday paper has Staples selling a WDC 6Gig HD for $80. I just watched APM come out with numbers indicating that they were selling their product for less than the cost of manufacturing it. A scary trend is developing here. BAMBI now reflects 10 of the 30 DJIA stocks in a MACD bear market. This past week GE, TRV, BA, and (sorry Chris) DIS joined the bear crowd. BAMBI stands at a bearish 19 to 11. Alas, 15 of the DJIA stocks beat the Index for last week and I consider that bullish. The, market has essentially moved sideways for 7 weeks now. BAMBI says another sideways move this week. But, alas, we got the FOM interest rate hype and all could change. I learned last year not to anticipate the FOM. It ain't worth the effort. Just sit back and wait. Your finger can be quicker on the trigger than the big boys. Looks like banks and brokerages if the Market interprets the news well. BWDIK. Jury, I agree with you on MCD. However, I disagree with you on NKE. Had 4 15 year old boys here yesterday and all had NKE's on their feet. My son needs new shoes and wouldn't consider anything other than a NKE. Seems that the righteous do-gooders have not yet found a way to influence this age group. Berney

To: Jurgen Trautmann who wrote (2905)	5/18/1998 2:39:00 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 11051

>>Try it out! Take the world's strongest Software-company (SAP) out of the "DAX", and the this-years-German-boom is haded.<< Du boese Onkel du, stop scaring the kids, Juri. Your statement may be OK, but your argument just stinks. Below complete DAX 30 with market cap and some numbers. For the 25% rise in DAX SAP carries exactly 1.62% of the total - on the rank 16 -. My way of re-saying what Juri intended: the indeces are measurements of market opinion, connected somehow with the fundamentals of the underlyings. BUT, there is NO deterministic mechanics behind it. Have I haded it correctly? ;) DJ PS: Good to keep these numbers sort of behind one's eye balls. Keeps them from popping out (g). BTW Allianz owns the rest of the gang (just kidding, but not quite...) market Cap week 21/98 since 1.1.98 wk 21/98 (in MDM) [%] [%] I II III IV allianz Hldg 130108,00 10,24% 24,68 2,53 Dt Telekom 121546,00 9,57% 28,41 2,72 Daimler Benz 101018,00 7,95% 50,42 4,01 Deutsche Bank 83297,00 6,56% 22,99 1,51 Munchener Re 66619,00 5,24% 21,78 1,14 Siemens 62101,00 4,89% 0,18 0,01 VEBA 59651,00 4,70% -1,28 -0,06 Bayer 56705,00 4,46% 11,86 0,53 Mannesmann 53831,00 4,24% 53,97 2,29 Dresdner Bank 52213,00 4,11% 22,53 0,93 BASF 49765,00 3,92% 21,4 0,84 Hoechst 44185,00 3,48% 13,01 0,45 Volkswagen 40543,00 3,19% 44,83 1,43 SAP VA 39150,00 3,08% 52,7 1,62 Bayer. V.bank 38797,00 3,05% 18,06 0,55 BMW 37455,00 2,95% 49,01 1,44 Commerzbank 32526,00 2,56% -2,57 -0,07 RWE 29435,00 2,32% -8,14 -0,19 Bayer. Hypo 26001,00 2,05% 18,03 0,37 Metro 24234,00 1,91% 43,27 0,83 VIAG 24151,00 1,90% -7,24 -0,14 Lufthansa 16581,00 1,31% 27,79 0,36 Thyssen 14595,00 1,15% 8,27 0,10 Schering 13215,00 1,04% 7,82 0,08 Linde 10498,00 0,83% 15,12 0,12 Henkel VA 9442,00 0,74% 36,25 0,27 Degussa 9213,00 0,73% 14,87 0,11 Preussag 9185,00 0,72% 13,67 0,10 MAN 7328,00 0,58% 25,61 0,15 Karstadt 7031,00 0,55% 41,86 0,23 sum 1270419,00 100,00% 24,26 I - market Cap in Mill DM II - market Cap in percent of all 30 DAX titles III - price increase since 1.1.98 IV = II * III - the sum of IV over all 30% gives 24.26% - ie DAX rise since 1.1.98