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To: gbh who wrote (47025)	5/17/1998 12:23:00 PM
From: Darren	Respond to of 61433

Why do think these stocks are immune in a bear market? It's not that the big guns are immune to a bear market, it's that they will continue to drive earnings forward, and earnings are the only thing that moves a bear market in a positive direction. When all else fails, even a lower valuation of Microsoft cannot overcome the fact that the company can still bring in 30% earnings growth. If all these stocks are going up, how can it be a bear market? That's an interesting question, but I think the definition of a bear market will have to be revised in such a way that individual stocks can still move forward, albeit more slowly, whereas the entire market could still take the definition of a "bear" market. There are so many more stocks in the market now than say 5-10 years ago that one has to wonder if the overall indexes really mean anything any more...and they are so often cited as the indicators of a bear market. I think the first stocks to go will be AOL type stocks. Small earnings or over-valued fundamentals combined with an outrageous stock price...INTC's PE is only about 20, which is relatively high for it's industry, but nothing compared to MSFT's P/E of 60. But the software industry has low fixed costs relative to the chip industry. To find the definition of what INTC is worth in a bear market, one might take into account the chip gluts in/around 1985. The only thing that will bring MSFT down is the over-intrusive Gov't, and you'd think they have learned from AT&T or IBM. I definitely think DELL is over-valued in a bear market environment, because they just don't have a strategic competitive advantage comparable to INTC, MSFT. The above is just a contrary view to yours, and not my opinion of where the market will be in 2-4 years. I would say my view represents the extreme...and I'd be the first to say I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen in the future...just trying to "enliven the conversation."