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To: kolo55 who wrote (55696)5/16/1998 2:46:00 PM
From: Mary Cluney  Respond to of 186894
 
Paul, >>>In one of their conference calls last year, Intel said this. Further, in order for the gross margin to average 50, as Intel has said, there are times that the margin will be in the 40s to balance out the times the margin is in the 50s and 60s. This is a mathematical consequence of the average function. <<<

I am confused. Just what do you claim Intel said in last years conference call? What is the quote?

Somehow I think Intel was implying that it could go below 50 to maybe 47,48,or 49 and average out to about 50. Whereas, you read it to mean that it will go down to 40.

Do you think you could clarify this?

Mary



To: kolo55 who wrote (55696)5/16/1998 3:09:00 PM
From: Mary Cluney  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 186894
 
Paul, You paint a bleak picture without providing any material information to dispute two main points in Intel's guidance to analysts.

1. Intel will maintain GPM at about 50%.
2. Business will improve 2H98.

If you know something materially relevant then you need to put Intel managments feet to the fire - to come clean. otherwise, you would just have to go with their guidance.

You paint a bleak picture with words about two competitors fighting for their lives and outsourcing production (at what has to be a higher cost) - because they can't compete on their own - causing a catastrophic scenario. In the meantime Intel is accellerating the lowering cost of the production of the PII processor and improvements in feeds and speeds - not to mention their slot I strategy that could obselete the competitions products once and for all. I won't mention Merced and what that is going to mean.

Is it that simple? Could I ramp up a Coke clone and increase production to 50% of cokes (or outsource it to RC Cola) and give it away and I will capture 50% of Cokes market share?

Mary



To: kolo55 who wrote (55696)5/16/1998 4:01:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis  Respond to of 186894
 
Paul,
Let me guess, DELL will get super deals on Intel chips while still taking the cream off the top of the consumer market not to mention gaining considerably in the Server market.
Jim

PS...don't worry about Paul E., he has a thing about seeing NSM and AMD pay dearly for daring to compete with his mighty Intel. He has never grasped the concept that commoditization will cause margins to shrink. One thing that Intel DOES have going for it is as long as they can keep a few speed grades ahead they can skim the fat fat margins off the top. Whether that will be enough, time will tell.




To: kolo55 who wrote (55696)5/17/1998 5:42:00 PM
From: Paul Engel  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 186894
 
Paul - Re: " They have lined up enough fab capacity to take 20
points off Intel's unit market share by mid-99. "

You are clearly confused by your zealousness for these two losers.

ALL the FAB capacity in the world will not help a company if they have the WRONG PRODUCTS!

NSM/Cyrix clearly has the WRONG PRODUCTS! - They AIN"t GOT No customers!

Why do you think they just preannounced IMPENDING severe losses?

And AMD is barely hanging on with yesterday's technology. They do not have the high performance that Intel has and they do not have the SLOT 1 compatibility that the market is shifting to.

Intel keeps "out producing" AMD with newer and better technology. AMD will push out their K6-ME-2 but Intel already has the Katmai that is going to lure developers - the Katmai's double precision floating point MMX instructions - 71 of them - are far more powerful than the K6-ME-2 - then tack on the 500 MHz speed of the Katmai!

Intel's Mendocino with on chip L2 cache is already out and being sampled - and AMD's K6-3D+ is still being debugged!

AMD can only maintain minimal sales by offering their second-rate products at a deep discount to Intel's products. And their ASP's are below their costs.

By expanding capacity, they will expand their losses.

Paul