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To: j g cordes who wrote (43366)	5/17/1998 3:19:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Interesting. Many of us here have been discussing the Asian problems for some time. So picking INDO or Starr is limited in scope, as the Asian banking problems and weak Japanese economy have been an issue since at least last summer. Hirshs' analysis may not be far off the mark, although it reminds me of childhood readers that taught us World War I was started because of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand; when in fact the assassination was merely a flashpoint for what had been a deteriorating political situation in the first place. If Hirsh wishes to lay the blame in this fashion, "I tried to pinpoint the reason for the market's weakness in May in those years and noted that a number of unsettling incidents occured during the month: a political crisis in Saigon (1966); the prelude to the Arab-Israeli War (1967; France paralyzed by civil violence (1968); Cambodian Invasion (1970); a massive peace protest in several major US cities (1971); and Watergate(1973)." then I suppose in his sequel (if indeed there is a significant correction here) he may lay the blame for May-June 1998 on Starr and INDO. In any event, my thoughts are that this is a cyclical turn that is on the horizon. A 20 % decline is not impossible whether it be a series of sharp moves or a slow decline. Markets do not "crash" from the top. Further, without a chart to refer to at this moment, I do not believe this would alter the Primary Trend because of the market's almost parabolic rise...second only, as I understand it, to the rise leading into the crash in 1929. After that decline, it is believed that Hoover ordered rates to be raised even after the crash which gave the market nowhere to go but down. I don't believe this administration or Greenspan would make such a mistake. As a result the market should present exceptional opportunity in mid-summer. So in that sense I would say we agree.... a decline then rebound in the summer. The reasons why we agree are completely different. As far as the extent of the likely decline, well only time will tell old Jim.

To: j g cordes who wrote (43366)	5/17/1998 10:47:00 AM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

for you gates fans To: +Richard Mazzarella (11801 ) From: +Bobby Yellin Sunday, May 17 1998 7:12AM ET Reply # of 11819 I heard a few Gates jokes..the latest..is when Gates,Clinton and Gore died..and had their hearing before the great unknown..Clinton presented his case and the great unknown said..you may sit on my right..Gore presented his case and the great unknown said you may sit on my left..then it was Gates turn..the first thing Gates said was first,please get out of my chair