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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Scambusters -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: paulmcg0 who wrote (126)5/18/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: Larry Holmes  Respond to of 178
 
"When you buy stock, you are buying a part (albeit small) of a business. Since it is supposed to be a business, without a financial statement, you really have no idea what you are buying. You have no idea of whether or not the company is economically viable, or if it is just a concept. Scammers often will tip themselves off by refusing to provide a financial statement."

agreed. There is quite a difference between finding a company which is simply in the earliest stages of being started up, and simply has incomplete financial statements to provide, (in which case you'd like to invest in something which has vast potential so you may choose to invest IF YOU KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT THE COMPANY AND/OR ITS FOUNDER(S) WHICH MAKES YOU COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO RISK YOUR MONEY), and being foolish enough to invest in a company which has existed for some time but has no financials. Either management is not experienced/competent enough to provide financials which reflect the status of the company (even a brand new company ought to be able to provide pro-forma financials which make sense), or, even worse, it is a scam.

One thing I've experienced, though, is that it is often "easier" to get intestors into a company when LESS information is provided than when detailed information is provided. I don't know why; it is something to do with human nature or perhaps weakness that investors will plunk down money for a 100% "blue sky" proposal but will hesitate when enough data is given to accurately reveal the risks. However, when management has to deal with investors later on, especially, if the company does not meet its blue sky projections (which it rarely, if ever, does), accurate disclosure of risks/rewards makes the process straightforward and prevents legal problems, while sketchy or missing data, while allowing the investor to dream up any expectations which are necessary to get a quick initial investment, inevitably causes massive problems later on. Thus, a legitimate company MUST create financials which accurately reflect precisely what officers know at the time. If they are mostly guessing, the financials should clearly state that they are pro-forma statements which could change drastically over time.

Of course, anyone who is scamming the investor(s) is going to do just the opposite. The investor will be "scanned" by the scammer, who will try to discover what the investor is looking for, then, try to provide "cooked up" statements, or none at all, and try to sell the investor on the blue sky potential of the company. Thus, if I were considering investing in a company, I would simply ask them for financials. If I get good statments, even if they are pro-forma and clearly marked as such, I can evaluate risks/rewards and decide what to do. If management asks too many questions of me, especially, detailed questions about what exactly I need to see, either they are too inexperienced for my tastes, or, worse, scamming.

I was once in the position of being very inexperienced, and doing some of the things above which I would now not accept! So I speak from experience, even though at the time, I was honest with investors and was NEVER scamming them, because they did not do their "due diligence" properly, later on, there were hard feelings when my blue sky projections, which they mistook for hard facts, were not met. Entrepreneurs MUST see the "blue sky" much of the time, or they could not devote themselves to the task of building the company. Thus, a necessary trait of entrepreneurs, ie, almost a deliberate disregard for the risks involved, can be detrimental to investment by skilled investors.

There are many other issues which come into play, but for me, as both an entrepreneur and investor at times in the past, I agree wholeheartedly with the core of your assertions, ie, that a company must be able to provide financials which match the growth stage of the company, or, the risk of a scam is very high. Even new companies should be able to provide SOMETHING which is appropriate for the stage the company is in, otherwise, the risk is high that management is not honest with you, with itself, or both, and/or, that management is not aware of the need for constant financial management of company resources. In either case, the risk is VERY high for the investor(s), even though investment may still be made if the investor(s) are very interested and can get enough for their investment to justify the risks taken.

Just my $0.02 worth on the subject.

regards,

Larry




To: paulmcg0 who wrote (126)5/18/1998 2:47:00 PM
From: Larry Holmes  Respond to of 178
 
Here is a quote from an online penny stock newsletter I get called "per Spec tives", (email to perspectives@shaw.wave.com for more info).

"Commentary

State of mind can have an important influence on an investor's decision making process. An investor who has an opinion about a stock can often ignore reality and make a bad decision when buying or selling. Remembering that share price is based upon the present value of future earnings expectations, one should never be swayed by the emotion of the market.

Despite this, we constantly see the same mistakes being made, both in
buying bad opportunities or ignoring good ones. Investors who have lost on a stock rarely come back to play that stock again. It is as though they connect the stock with some sort of suffering and believe that owning the stock will inevitably lead to suffering. A company that failed to materialize once before may have a completely new, good opportunity which can take their share price higher. Yet the once bitten shareholder is twice shy, and prefers to leave the stock alone.

In some instances, there is some sense in this since poor management can repeatedly make bad business deals which never materialize. However, in a business like resource exploration, a lot of success can be determined by luck. Simply, when considering any stock, don't put too much emphasis on what has happened in the past as it may cloud your judgement. A stock has no morality.

The ability of the promotion machine to put investors in positive state is another trap that investors fall into. The best promoters are psychological wizards, knowing how to reference positive states and connect those strong feelings of confidence and prosperity to their own stocks. Smooth talking and the ability to piece together an exciting story combine to create an optimism that makes people buy a stock. When one is aware of how the stories are written to manipulate the investor, it become easy to spot.

However, many investors fall into the trap and buy the dream. With the
dream comes illusions that the fundamentals of the company can not live up to. Now, the dream can take a stock a long ways up. But the sad thing is, those who dream often don't wake up in time and end up holding almost worthless paper when reality sets in.

So many of the best promoters and stock traders have backgrounds in
psychology. They are able to recognize and understand the reasons why
stocks are under or over valued and take advantage in this moment of market inefficiency. Understanding the power of the mind to change perceptions is an important step in becoming a good stock trader.

Enough Said"

I thought this was applicabel here.

Larry