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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (8876)	5/17/1998 10:47:00 AM
From: Craig Richards	Respond to of 18691

LHSG will be splitting on May 29th, so you may want to wait before shorting it.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (8876)	5/17/1998 2:20:00 PM
From: Neil_L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Another high flyer that seems to be running into trouble is BAANF. Missed last quarter by a mile, slowing growth, accounting procedures are being questioned, rumors of dissatisfied customers, and @ 45 is still trading on a trailing P/E of 137, P/S of 11.4. Estimates are coming down quickly but with current estimates of .48 and .73 for 98 and 99, its still trading at a forward P/E's of 94 and 62. I think the stock could be in for a few tough months. Only thing I don't like is the short interest is building quickly. Neil.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (8876)	5/18/1998 3:56:00 AM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Respond to of 18691

This company competes in a sliver of the market space that is currently occupied by SEBL/SCOP, in selling customer interaction software to telecom business. As others have noted on this thread, SEBL seems a tad overvalued as well, even at a substantially lower PE than LHSG, and with a broader product base. I also know for a fact that both ORCL and SAP are moving into this space. So I agree, this is looking like a good short, but I would probably hold off for two things: * The inevitiable reaction to the Barron's article, which is probably going to be followed by some mindless upgrades and at least a partial bounce back. * An upcoming split, which always seems to create a mindless buying frenzy as well as more available shares to short. For what it's worth, I think most of the enterprise software companies are overvalued at current levels. LHSG may just be the most extreme example. mg