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Strategies & Market Trends : Joe Copia's daytrades/investments and thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Copia who wrote (2872)	5/18/1998 9:37:00 AM
From: Larry Voyles	Respond to of 25711

More of Larry's patented Mass Hysteria(tm): Tired Market! For those of you that also subscribe to that Wall Street paper, here's a link: interactive.wsj.com For those of you that don't, here are some excerpts edited to only support my viewpoint: Is relentless bullishness turning to speculative excess in the stock market? Some of the warning signs are there: Margin debt is soaring, mergers and acquisitions are exploding, initial public stock offerings continue to inundate the market, and investors are driving up the shares of companies with little or no earnings, such as Internet-related companies. To some analysts, these indicators smell of the froth that has often preceded sharp corrections or bear markets. That article goes on to speculate about tomorrows FOMC meeting and the risk of an interest-rate hiking spurring a "sharp correction". Margin debt, mergers, IPOS, "concept stock" frenzies, yadda yadda yadda. The article does a fair job of providing balance, but that doesn't support my assertions, so I'm leaving those parts out. ;) I'm not a bear. Really, I'm not! However, I did some reading on '29 this weekend and did some unscientific and highly questionable comparisons with current conditions. It was just a little unnerving. I think I'm going to pull back out of the margin zone and keep some cash around. I may go home all cash tonight if I hear any more unsubstantiated rumors. If the Fed does do something bone-headedly stupid tomorrow, finding winners may be a simple matter of picking which stocks will fall the farthest.