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To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (11320)5/17/1998 4:57:00 PM
From: Savoirman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13925
 
My few cents on the Reuters article: Singapore's invesmtments are concentrated in three islands: Batam, Bintan and Karimun. So far, practically nothing has gone wrong here. The population here is quite happy with their wages and the infrastructure built by Singapore (housing, water, electricity, roads). Any new regime is likely to view these favourably as they're major hard currency earners.

Trade with Indonesia has a large component of intermediate goods for use in manufacturing in Batam etc. and the goods exported back to Singapore for shipping to third countries. This portion of trade is not likely to be affected.

Yes, Singapore banks have lent about 12% of total assets to Indonesian companies. But these have been partly written off. Also, Singapore banks are more stringent in lending, so the unrecoverable portion may not be 100%, even with all this riots.

The real impact is social/political. Indonesian corporate figures have many ties and hold stakes in Singapore companies. These people may lose their "advantage" is Suharto gets booted out. And many of these people have no real reason to be corporate leaders except through "guanxi". They may be liquidate their stakes in Singapore companies to fund their "escape" (some of this has already happened with Suharto's son Bambang). Anyway, the Indonesian corporate presence is waning is Singapore as many corporate shenanigans over the last 2 years have involved Indonesians. Of course not all Indonesians corporate figures are shady but the good ones are rare.

Anyway, one real change is positive. The cost of doing business in Batam, Bintan and Karimun has dropped like a ton of bricks. So Singapore companies there (especially exporters) will have improved margins to help offset the drop in volume.

I agree with Chris4hum that this article is pretty nothing. Some wild gesticulation and regurgitation of old news. And the writer didnt even interview political and social experts, who would have much more insight than these stockbrokers.