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To: Moonray who wrote (12470)	5/17/1998 1:43:00 PM
From: Mang Cheng	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Another article on Semi outlook : "No Growth In 1998 For Semiconductor Industry - Forecast" ****No Growth In 1998 For Semiconductor Industry - Forecast 05/14/98 SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA, U.S.A., 1998 MAY 14 (NB) -- By Craig Menefee, Newsbytes. The semiconductor industry probably faces another flat year in 1998, according to high-tech market research firm In-Stat. The firm says its March analysis, announced Thursday, paints the most dismal first-quarter picture since 1985, widely considered a disastrous year for the market. newsbytes.com Mang

To: Moonray who wrote (12470)	5/17/1998 3:36:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

Moonray: I think I have mentioned this before but the SGS guy (like the TXN guy) are both impressive dudes. --- The three big drivers that will account for 70 percent of all semiconductor activity are PCs, communications and consumer electronics, he said. Consumer ICs are projected by Dataquest to be a $40 billion market by 2002. And communication ICs are project to grow from the $32 billion in 1997 to $60 billion in 1998. Advances in communications ICs, especially LAN and WAN chips, are now driving communication applications - rather than the other way around, he said. DVD chips will see 100 percent growth from 1996 to 2001, while xDSL devices see 60 percent growth and automotive GPS chips will have 55 percent growth over the same period. But DRAM revenues will be halved from $40 billion in 1997 to $21 billion in 1998. The DRAM industry will ship more product, he said, but will get much less money for it. ---- Shane (who liked LSI in 1996 because of the consumer chip market in the year 2000 and likes the trend even better today. As Corrigan say PCs are becoming consumer gadgets because prices are coming down so fast. Remember LSI is 2nd biggest in consumer chips today with 12% of the consumer IC market today - 12% of 40 billion in 2002 is 5 billion in sales - though I doubt if LSI will have 12% LSI will be above 5% guaranteed - at 5-7% we have 2.5 billion in sales for consumer chips for LSI in 2002 and if this is about 40% of LSI's business then LSI will be around 6-7 billion in revenue in 2002. Hmmmm.... Today 1.3 billion. In say 5 years 6 billion or 35% CAGR - this will likely mean somewhere around 60% growth in earnings CAGR. Now with 50% dilution to 210 million shares by then, we have EPS of $7 in 2002 or a share price of $250 in 2002 - hmm.... - humor with a pinch of reality. To get more realistic say, 15% net or 1 billion in earnings or $5 per share in 2002 or $150 in share price based on 30 P/E - hmmm... there's my famous number - $150.... )