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To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (701)5/17/1998 4:01:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1361
 
[BOOKS] Yourdon: Time Bomb 2000'

Sire,

Much of what is going on about Y2k is not officially published. There are many business and other interests at stake. From my own experiences and from talks with engineers who are working on embedded software problems, I know that the problems are very real.

I follow this Y2k issue for almost one year now... Reading a lot on many different discussion boards, online magazines etc. I got to know many people working in this area. Although for many issues there is not a 100% hard proof, for many issues there is strong evidence.

Everybody has to make his own mind as to how bad this will be. Very instructive is the well-known book of software expert Ed Yourdon, 'Time bomb 2000' (posted the ISBN some time ago).

In this book, Ed gives many proven samples of Y2k problems. He also demonstrates all the dependencies that exist on a macro-economic scale (using system dynamic modelling). He then proceeds to present various 'personal preparation' scenarios:
- for 2 days Failures
- for 1 months Failures
- for 1 year Failures
- for 10 year Failures

Everybody reading his book will have his/her own idea how bad Y2k will be for some particular area (e.g. banking, jobs, transportation, food, utilities etc).
Based on on the severity estimate of your own, Yourdon proceeds to give preparation advices.

I have always highly esteemed Yourdon on the field of software engineering (being a software engineer myself). He has published some 25 or more well known book on various software engineering issues.
Also, the Prentice Hall publisher has a series 'Yourdon Press computing Series'; containing some 40 different titles ranging from software project management, object oriented design, structured analysis, assessment of software risks, business reengineering to people management. All by leading authors on those subjects.

So this is not 'just another of those Y2k scare-mongers' (not your words) . He also moved recently moved from NYC to New Mexico. Want to know why?

Regards, all the best,

John