REH and Thread,
Some news from Mitsubishi 256-Mbit DRAMs. I am not sure that
I have to be that optimistic, though. If Intel/RMBS gets into
a Sony/Betamax image, we're headed south on RMBS price.
Regards,
MiB
---- snip from TechWeb
Memories-- Mitsubishi also sampling as
other japanese vendors prep for later this
year -- Samsung offers samples of 256-Mbit
DRAMs
By David Lammers
Tokyo - Japan's semiconductor industry had one eye closed for the "Golden
Week" holiday last week when Samsung Electronics (Seoul, South Korea)
announced that it had sent samples of its second-generation 256-Mbit
DRAM to several of the largest U.S. computer makers (see May 11, page
8). The samples were made at 0.18-micron design rules.
Because the die is small enough to fit into a 400-mil package-the standard for
64-Mbit DRAMs-Samsung's move was seen in Japan as a major advance.
At the same time, Japan's largest business daily, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun,
reported that Hyundai Electronics (Seoul) will resume construction of its
Scotland fab, which was put on hold after South Korea's economic crash late
last year. The fab will make 256-Mbit DRAMs there on 12-inch wafers,
according to the daily. Hyundai officials were not available for comment.
Mitsubishi sampling
Hitachi and Toshiba plan to begin 256-Mbit DRAM sampling late this year,
with commercial production to begin in mid-1999. Other Japanese
companies are expected to follow suit. An exception is Mitsubishi Electric
Corp.; according to a spokesman, the company is already sampling a
256-Mbit extended-data-out (EDO)DRAM.
The relatively simple EDO interface will be used in the early going by
workstation and other large system vendors. They interleave the EDO-type
memories with the narrow, by-8 configurations, which are amenable to error
correction, said Masahiro Suzuki, DRAM analyst at Dataquest Japan.
Synchronous DRAMs present tricky timing problems, which make it difficult
to mix parts from various vendors and which limit the number of buffered dual
in-line memories (DIMMs) to eight slots, he said. The number of modules
filled with EDO-type 256-Mbit DRAMs would not be so restricted, he said.
"Many of the DRAM vendors want to get into the 256-Mbit generation as
quickly as possible, because the 64-Mbit generation is just not profitable at
all at today's prices," Suzuki said.
An engineer at NEC Corp., which is privy to some Samsung technology
under an information-exchange agreement, described Samsung's 0.18-micron
process as roughly equivalent to his company's 0.20-micron process. But
Samsung appears to have gotten a jump start in acquiring advanced
krypton-fluoride (KrF) steppers with optical-enhancement technology.
Samsung has more of the second- generation steppers in place than NEC, the
engineer said.
NEC plans to begin 256-Mbit DRAM sampling-with a 400-mil package-late
this year. But mass production will not begin at NEC Hiroshima until "the
second half of fiscal 1999," a spokesman said, referring to September or
later. NEC is in a stronger financial position than Samsung at this point and
may be able to move ahead with plans to build a 300-mm wafer line at its
mainstay Kyushu fab for 256-Mbit DRAMs, the spokesman said.
Samsung used 8-inch wafers at an existing 64-Mbit production line in Kihung,
South Korea, rather than an R&D line. Samples went out to IBM,
Hewlett-Packard, Compaq, Intel, Sun Microsystems and two unnamed
personal-computer makers.
Chang-kyu Hwang, who heads the 256-Mbit DRAM development group at
Samsung's R&D center, predicted Samsung will be in mass production about
a year before other DRAM makers.
With a die size of 1.016 by 2.032 cm (roughly double the size of the most
advanced 64-Mbit DRAMs made today), Samsung appears ready to take
the 256-Mbit DRAM generation into the marketplace. With a
power-consumption rating of just 70 mA, the high-density modules will not
cause undue heating problems, Samsung said.
Eventually, 256-Mbit and gigabit-scale memories are expected to open up
new markets-a 256-Mbit DRAM can store four hours of audio recording, for
example. But for the next two years, the 256-Mbit-density parts will be used
primarily in high-end computer systems where the per-chip price is less
important than the system performance. Samsung quoted Dataquest estimates
of a $239 price per 256-Mbit DRAM in 1999, dropping by half in 2000 and
to $55 per chip by 2001.
International Data Corp. forecasts a $200 million market for 256-Mbit
DRAMs next year, increasing to $880 million in 2000 and growing quickly to
$9.4 billion in 2001, according to Akira Minamikawa, senior semiconductor
analyst at IDC Japan.
Samsung's decision to begin with a synchronous interface will help the
Korean company get established in the wider computer market. "EDO-type
parts may be used in the very early going, but the market will shift to
256-Mbit SDRAMs very quickly," said Minamikawa.
The major contest during the mainstream years of the 256-Mbit generation
will be between the Direct Rambus parts and such competing devices as
SL-DRAMs. A spokesman at LG Semicon (Seoul) said LG will sample a
256-Mbit SDRAM by year's end, but the com-pany's major target is to
leverage its "world-leading" Rambus technology.
Hitachi Ltd. and LG Semicon have a burden-sharing relationship: LG
provides Hitachi with most of the 64-Mbit Rambus design work, and Hitachi
takes the lead in the 256-Mbit generation.
"The burden-sharing story is true, but still we are contributing a lot of our own
technology to the 256-Mbit Rambus DRAM design," the LG spokesman
said.
Copyright (c) 1998 CMP Media Inc.
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