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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (55737)	5/17/1998 7:01:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

>> see a resurgence in growth and profitability Apropos that, here's some comments from the ZDnet story on year 2001 computing. Key points are: DOS is dead, Win9x is dead, WinNT rules, NT64 + Merced = the future, 64-bit apps. My take is that we've been technology-flat on the desktop for the past 12 months ... that's why PC sales are flat/down. NT5, NT64, DSL, cable, gigabit, USB, 1394 ... all these are coming together for a VERY hot late 98 into 99. New wave time. - begin ZDnet - In A Few Years, We Will Experience A rare event in computing--the death of a dominant operating-system architecture. The vast majority of users have personal computers running the old Microsoft Windows kernel--the one that runs Windows 95 and Windows 98 and is based on the Windows 3.x kernel. All of these are booted from DOS, and they're all going away. Why is this about to happen soon? The old Windows kernel has made sense up to now as a mainstream operating system, because the next- generation operating system, Windows NT, doesn't support inexpensive computers, has a limited range of device support, and lacks mobile computing features. Windows NT is finally on the verge of addressing all these concerns: The next consumer version of Windows after Windows 98 will be a version of Windows NT. This version won't displace either the workstation or the server versions of Windows NT. Instead, there will be even more members of the Windows family from Microsoft, all based on Windows NT. The effects of shifting the mass of regular users to a Windows NT product are difficult to nail down. Certainly Windows will become a more stable platform as a result, but Microsoft has some hard work ahead of it in making Windows NT usable as a consumer operating system. It is safe to say that the user interface could change significantly between now and then. It is also safe to say that many of the worst techniques used by Windows programmers--such as requiring users to modify Config.sys and other system files--are either illegal or simply not problematic in Windows NT. Around the same time the old Windows kernel goes away, a parallel hardware revolution will create the next era of computing--64-bit architectures. The jump from 32-bit to 64-bit computing is not just another one of those incremental changes that happens every few months, such as a Moore's Law jump in processor speed; 64-bit address space is almost inconceivably large. - snip - Microsoft is working on a 64-bit version of Windows NT, but this product will not see the light of day until Intel's 64-bit P7 chips, referred to as Merced, become widely available. Merced is not expected to be released until 1999, and its presence in the marketplace will become common over the few years following. Even though Windows NT has run for years on 64-bit Alpha processor, it runs as a 32-bit operating system. Windows NT 5.0, due out in late 1998 or early 1999, contains some less ambitious tricks to expand the address space of programs. On x86 processors, Windows NT 5.0 is expected to allow for more efficient use of the 4GB address space, and on Alpha processors it will allow 64-bit addressing of memory but with little or no help from the operating system in managing that memory.

To: Paul Engel who wrote (55737)	5/17/1998 8:32:00 PM
From: Stonehenge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Beautifully stated Paul and I intend to be there at the end of 1998 and beyond.

To: Paul Engel who wrote (55737)	5/17/1998 11:51:00 PM
From: puborectalis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Very well put,Paul..as usual.Will any delay in MSFT's Windows 98 impact Intel in any way.?..Go Intel!

To: Paul Engel who wrote (55737)	5/18/1998 12:10:00 AM
From: Harry Landsiedel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Paul Engel. Re: "Look at Intel's history - it is marked by periods of flatness interspersed with surges in growth and profitability. We are in the later stages of such a flat period now. The end of 1998 will see a resurgence in growth and profitability." Exactly my sentiments. I could not have said it better. And I will be there with you, profiting by being patient. Some day we'll be reading posts here that celebrate the one billionth connected computer and ask, as an afterthought, "What every happened to Tom Kurlak?" HL

To: Paul Engel who wrote (55737)	5/18/1998 9:02:00 AM
From: gnuman	Respond to of 186894

Paul E, re:<Look at Intel's history - it is marked by periods of flatness interspersed with surges in growth and profitability. We are in the later stages of such a flat period now. The end of 1998 will see a resurgence in growth and profitability.> Well, Andy and Craig have been saying that, as have most of the analysts. But all things considered, this is a "no brainer." The question is, "growth relative to what?" Just 7 months ago the consensus estimate for 1998 was $4.73, and the estimate for 1999 was $5.30! This compares to the latest estimates of $3.18 and $3.88 respectively. It doesn't look like 1998 is a "flat period" for earnings growth, more like a "down period." Based on forecasts, it's not till the end of 1999 that we will see a "flat period" to 1997, (1997 = $3.86) . What this stock needs is an intelligent forecast that 1999 will greatly exceed 1997.