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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: peter michaelson who wrote (3675)	5/18/1998 8:53:00 AM
From: tom	Respond to of 9980

Rupiah has recovered a touch to 11,800 bid. Indonesian GDRs up a bit in London. Maybe the old dictator has resigned after all? By Ian MacKenzie JAKARTA, May 18 (Reuters) - President Suharto is expected to set at least four conditions in return for stepping down from the office he took up amid political and economic chaos in the mid-1960s, political sources said on Monday. Suharto will seek assurances on the unity of the armed forces (ABRI), maintenance of law and order, adherence to the constitution and an agreement to continue the development policies of his so-called New Order government, the sources said. Parliamentary Speaker Harmoko issued a statement earlier on Monday calling on the president to quit in the interests of national unity only two months into Suharto's seventh five-year term. Political sources said Harmoko's call would have been orchestrated with the president to ensure a cloak of constitutionality for his departure after 32 years in power. The leaders of the four (correct) factions in the 500-member parliament are due to meet on Tuesday, after which Harmoko was expected to convey to the 76-year-old president their agreement that he should stand down. The political sources said the departure process would likely take place over several days. "He will probably ask for a little time. If he went tomorrow everything will be a scramble," one said. Under Article Eight of the constitution, Suharto would be replaced by Vice-President Jusuf Habibie, although political analysts questioned how long the mercurial former aviation engineer might remain in power. "Should the president die, cease from executing or be unable to execute his duties during his term of office, his office shall be taken by the vice-president until the expiry of that term," the article states. Suharto was re-elected to a seventh term in March by the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the nation's top constitutional body which also elected Habibie to a concurrent term. "He will want first and foremost for the armed forces to remain united," one well-placed source said. The political sources said Suharto was also against a special session of the MPR, which normally meets only once in five years for the presidential election and to approve the broad outline of government policy. Despite the fact that the MPR is made up of the 500 members of parliament, the House of Assembly, and 500 appointed members, the sources said Suharto was concerned that a session he did not control might rescind development and other policies he had put in place over the past three decades. "Suharto will want it (his departure) on his terms without a special session for fear the whole structure could collapse," a source said. The sources said Harmoko would follow accepted rules in asking the president to step down. It was not immediately clear what face-saving excuse Suharto would give for resigning -- the most likely was health and age. The president was seriously ill late last year and has been looking tired and worn. Some analysts questioned how much bargaining power Suharto in fact retained in face of economic collapse and mounting popular pressure for him to go. The constitutional aspects of the succession, while apparently clear cut, are in fact murky. The National Assembly has in theory the power to call a special session of the Consultative Assembly, but Indonesia has never experienced an orderly handover of power. Some analysts suggest the National Assembly could also indicate loss of confidence in Habibie's role as vice-president, possibly leading to a truncated period in office or his replacement by a triumvirate of the interior, defence and foreign ministers. Financial markets gave the thumbs down to Habibie when his name surfaced in February as the likely next vice-president, and he has been unpopular with the armed forces in the past. The military, headed by General Wiranto, remains the most powerful single institution in the country and no president could function without its support.