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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (8383)	5/18/1998 10:45:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 11555

Knock on wood - IDTI seems to be holding up so far at the 10 1/2 level and is forming a new base. This is happening despite what might be conceived by many less informed investors as "news" about increased supply and the threat of dropping uP prices (Kurlak et al). If we sustain this base a bit longer, we may not see a lowering toward old lows of ~9 this summer. "When ya aint got notin', ya got nothin to loose" applies to this situation - while drops in prices in a product area that IDTI is just starting to crank out in "meaningful" quantities (>10% of revenues by Perham's definition) is not pleasant, it is still an addition, not a subtraction, from ongoing sales and earnings. Intel, on the other hand, will suffer increased margin erosion - they have a lot to loose (~85% market share) from lower prices. We still have the potential for a summer slow down and seasonal drop in tech stocks, but with the plans unfolding for new products and the lower stock price, the future is looking a bit more steady. It's hard to call a bottom; I think IDTI may trend sideways for a while, but over the next several weeks is a good time to accumulate shares in expectation of a move up by late fall IMO. It's clear from the volume thats trading that the institutions are quiet on the stock. They aren't buying but they aren't selling either. Analysts will need to wait until they get some confirmation that production is ramping and the prospects for sales at profitable ASPs is trending up before they revise their recommendations. Now is a good time to either confirm that IDTI is gaining ground at least as quickly as planned and that their C6/CX product strategy is sound or find that there are still flies in the ointment, further delaying the program. If they get on tract, the stock will very likely rebound. Given some delay for analysts to find out about things, massage their numbers, and broadcast their recommendations, now would be an excellent point in time to get a jump on the posible move. The way to do this is for someone to get an update with Brian or dig out the information from other sources.