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Biotech / Medical : Eli Lilly -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: S. HYDER who wrote (224)	5/18/1998 9:58:00 AM
From: James Baker	Respond to of 642

These EVISTA results in breast cancer prevention look great! Long term I have seen this drug as a block buster and this data should start convincing the non-believers. Jim

To: S. HYDER who wrote (224)	5/18/1998 12:33:00 PM
From: Anthony Wong	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 642

Lilly Drug Reduces Risk of Breast Cancer in Studies Bloomberg News May 18, 1998, 6:59 a.m. PT Lilly Drug Reduces Risk of Breast Cancer in Studies Los Angeles, May 18 (Bloomberg) -- Eli Lilly & Co.'s bone protecting drug Evista cut the risk of breast cancer at least in half for patients in ongoing studies of the drug, Lilly said. Patients taking Evista in ongoing osteoporosis studies had a 70 percent reduction in cases of newly diagnosed invasive breast cancer as compared with patients on placebo, according to the findings of a 7,705-patient study to be presented later today at a cancer conference in Los Angeles. Another study found patients on Evista had a 54 percent reduction in new cases of breast cancer. There was no increased risk of uterine cancer among patients taking Evista, Lilly added. ''If these data are confirmed, it's going to be a really big product,'' said Sergio Traversa, who follows Lilly for Mehta Partners. ''It becomes really almost perfect, if we can speak about perfect for a pharmaceutical product.'' Shares in Indianapolis, Indiana-based Eli Lilly rose 1 7/8 to 70 5/16 in recent trading. Lilly shares gained 14 percent in two days last month after an enticing glimpse of the data in abstracts, or short summaries, of studies to be featured later today at the annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology in Los Angeles. Developed as a designer hormone drug for preventing the bone loss which strikes most women after menopause, Evista has since shown evidence of protecting women from other possible medical problems, including heart disease and cancer. ''You could have a very significant share price appreciation in one day,'' if the drug's preventative benefits hold up to the scrutiny of doctors and analysts, said Akhtar Samad, an analyst with Mehta Partners LLC. ''I think that the data looks very promising at the abstract level. The important questions are going to be addressed in the oral presentation.'' Side Effects The fact that Evista didn't increase the risk of uterine cancer is particularly significant because British drugmaker Zeneca Group Plc's tamoxifen, the first and only other drug shown to reduce a woman's risk of breast cancer, has been shown to actually increase a woman's risk of developing uterine cancer. Because of those side effects, the tamoxifen drug, which could be approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration within the next six months, is not a drug for routine use in all women, cancer experts said. The drug was tested in women at a very high risk of breast cancer, and could soon offer a very important new choice for such women. Researchers will present and discuss full data on the tamoxifen trial -- most of which has previously been released -- today as well. Lilly's drug is years behind tamoxifen in terms of the kind of testing which is needed to ensure safety and a dependable benefit. Still, if data bears out that Evista is free of the uterine cancer side effect -- and in fact protects against it -- the drug could see boost in sales down the road, analysts said. 'Big Product' Stakes are high, because Lilly needs to present convincing data and boost confidence in the drug's blockbuster potential, analysts said. Big sales for Evista are important for Lilly as the company looks to replace its big blockbuster drug Prozac. Currently the world's best selling anti-depressant, Prozac will likely see its patent expire by 2004. Disappointing early sales of Evista have made Lilly fall about almost 1 percent this year, lagging the 19 percent return of the Standard & Poor's Drugs Index. ''For what they expected to be a home run, it's been a single or a double,'' said David Saks, a Gruntal & Co. analyst who has a ''neutral'' rating on the company. Saks said the company is hoping the breast cancer prevention use will drive a growth in sales for the drug over time. The anti- osteoporosis drug had a slow introduction, he said, and still lags behind Whitehouse Station, New Jersey-based Merck & Co.'s Fosamax. Merck's drug is approved for treating the bone-thinning condition, while Evista is cleared only for prevention. Evista and tamoxifen, which is sold under the brand name Nolvadex and also in a generic form by Barr Laboratories Inc. in the U.S., are part of a class of drugs that mimic the action of the hormone estrogen in some parts of the body and counteract its effects in others. Pfizer Inc., Novo Nordisk A/S and SmithKline Beecham Plc are developing similar drugs. Breast cancer is the most common form of the disease in women, and among cancers only lung cancer kills more women every year. An estimated 180,300 new cases of breast cancer will be diagnosed in 1998, according to the American Society of Clinical Oncology. --Kristin Reed in Los Angeles with reporting from Kerry Dooley in