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To: Alex who wrote (11856)	5/18/1998 12:31:00 PM
From: Bobby Yellin	Respond to of 116856

free trial..forgot if somebody posted this venerosogold.com (ps..hope Bobby B. is feeling better)

To: Alex who wrote (11856)	5/18/1998 2:35:00 PM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116856

Ready for a drop?: amcity.com rh

To: Alex who wrote (11856)	5/18/1998 3:21:00 PM
From: Eashoa' M'sheekha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116856

Britain To Join EMU After Next Election? From The Sunday Times.........More To Come....... SENIOR British industrialists believe the government is aiming to join the European monetary union (Emu) less than a year after the next election at a rate of between DM2.60 and DM2.65 to the pound. Executives believe the government is aiming at a central entry rate of DM2.63. The target range has emerged after meetings with Tony Blair and his team in which numerous industrialists voiced their concern at the rise in sterling over the past year and the prospect that the currency could remain high until Emu entry was imminent. The target figure is in line with the expectations of currency traders that sterling will enter Emu at between DM2.55 and DM2.70. Coincidentally, the target is close to the level of some of the options bought recently by George Soros's Soros Fund Management firm. It emerged last week that Soros, who made a huge profit when the pound was forced out of the European exchange-rate mechanism (ERM) in 1992, had bought up to $8 billion of sterling "put" options, giving him the right to sell the pound at DM2.70 and DM2.65. Most economists believe that a fair value for the pound against is between DM2.60 and DM2.65, although some argue a rate of below DM2.50 is more appropriate. However, securing the agreement of Britain's European partners on an entry rate could be more difficult. Britain was criticised for not consulting with the rest of Europe when it settled on an entry rate of DM2.95 for sterling in the ERM in 1990. The Bundesbank later said that the pound had entered at too high a rate. This time the problem could be the opposite, with French and Italian industry likely to oppose too low an entry rate for the pound into the single currency for fear that it would give British industry an unfair advantage. Another significant problem will be tracking the euro prior to entry. The Maastricht conditions require either that Britain enter the new ERM of non-Emu countries for two years before joining the single currency or that it acts as if it were in the system. The pound, in other words, would need to be brought down to the desired entry level a year before the next election. Blair and his chancellor, Gordon Brown, would like Emu entry to be around January 1, 2002 when euro notes and coins will enter circulation for the first time. They believe this would provide a window of opportunity for Britain to regain the ground it lost by delaying its commitment to the system. But that timing is subject to the date of the next election, which Blair does not want to hold until his government has held office for at least four years. That leaves the way open for a poll in May 2001. The referendum Blair has promised on Emu membership could then come in the autumn if the prime minister judges that the British public is likely to deliver a yes vote. Such a timetable, combined with the Emu entry target range, could present economic management problems and create tensions with the Bank of England over interest rates. In its inflation report last week, the Bank said it was assuming stability for sterling around present levels over the next two years but added a cautionary note that a fall of up to 7% could occur. If sterling fell sharply, the Bank could raise base rates. Thus, even if the pound was converging on the government's desired entry level into Emu, it might only do so with interest rates in Britain well above those in the euro zone. With financial markets nervous over the impact of the unrest in Indonesia, there will be further evidence of the effect of the Asian crisis this week. Hong Kong will announce a rise in unemployment to 3.9%, its highest since 1982.