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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dale sicher who wrote (10053)	5/18/1998 1:38:00 PM
From: Keith A Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

It is very interesting to see what is occurring in the market today. As I see it, the money is moving into "safe" havens, ie. IBM, LU, KO, CSCO, CMB and away from the hot-techs, MSFT, AOL, YHOO. The market is preparing for a cooling-off. Longs on AOL, YHOO, MSFT, etc. need to be buying puts to protect their profits. Just my opinion.

To: dale sicher who wrote (10053)	5/18/1998 2:10:00 PM
From: James Berg	Respond to of 13594

<The statistics would indicate a 68% chance (3 sigma) for a 25% correction (plus or minus 10%) off the recent high of about 9200 sometime between now and January of 1999. I know that sounds horrendous but the point is it has happened time and time again and I doubt many people caught in any of those periodic (and apparently somewhat regular) downdrafts in any of those previous cycles would have believed it could happen (just like today).> I think that's optimistic, and that the correction and resultant bear market will start sometime this year. --James

To: dale sicher who wrote (10053)	5/18/1998 5:44:00 PM
From: Kerry Phineas	Respond to of 13594

Dale, I think AOL can go down without the market crashing, but weakness in the market would hit AOL hard. In terms of TA rationale for the stock going down now, I have no clue other than the generic bubble blow off top/ crash scenario it seems to be following. I don't think the fundamentals are going to worsen in the immediate future- everything in the recent past has been taken as amazingly positive, and I wouldn't think it would be too hard to improve on most aspects other than the recent membership growth which is cyclical around Xmas. I have July puts, so I'd love for it to be fairly soon of course. Definitely ridiculous.