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To: Beltropolis Boy who wrote (421)5/18/1998 4:08:00 PM
From: Eve Edelson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1331
 
Out for a while

Chris, I got out today for a (short? medium?) while. BTW I have no adherence to long or short term trading per se, I just do what feels right at the time. In no particular order:

- the immense institutional ownership concerns me.
- I am starting to feel wary of mergers (as opposed to acquisitions). It's one thing to acquire a smaller business which is in good shape, will contribute immediately to the bottom line, and which you intend to more or less leave alone to go on doing the good job that attracted you in the first place. It's another to merge with a similarly-sized entity with a whole other corporate 'culture', information systems infrastructure, sales force, R&D group, etc. I am not against such things, but I don't understand the implications well enough. Comments anyone?
- most relevant: lucent's digestion of octel and so on. You are right, the competition is different now. It is not the teeny company I first knew. (Was in & out from 13-35 , a reverse split that worked out well.)

I am not going away but the stock hit my mental sell point today. A number of other stocks which seem good to me are getting pummeled beyond what seems reasonable..

cheers



To: Beltropolis Boy who wrote (421)5/19/1998 6:56:00 AM
From: Drake  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1331
 
Chris and Eve, CMVT is #1 to Telecos; institutions own approx. 53% of shares; Northern Telecom is actually a partner of CMVT; almost no insider sales nor planned sales since June of last year; 7 "strong buy" ratings and one "moderate buy"; 1.0 First Call rating; 5 year avg. P/E = 27 vs. current 22 P/E (based on yr. end 1/99 consensus earnings estimate); projected 25% to 35% growth for next 5 years; have proprietary technology, with high "customer switching cost"; LU's Octel is #1 with businesses, but not with Telecos; marketplace is huge and exploding; purchase of Boston Tech makes total sense because they are wireline, which CMVT didn't have; Company owns between 800,000 and 1.1 Mil "Short Interest Shares"; I personally switched my phone service from "call waiting" to "message line" with "call-forwarding -- busy" and "call forwarding -- no answer" (I'll explain in next post); excellent R&D prospects. (Sources: Company, Microsoft Investor, Zacks, AOL and IMO)