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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (310)	5/18/1998 4:02:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

Papaya, I am deemphasizing the TA on the drillers right now. $14 oil is the major factor for today's selloff. It can be anyone's guess on where the oil goes tomorrow and the day after, we should have the API number tomorrow and that can play a role in crude's future direction. I would rather see the drillers complete their turnaround (buy stop is the play here) before buying rather than buying on the dip. Oil settled above $14 so we have the end of the day rebound with the drillers as well. No surprise there. At this point it is a given that OPEC will want to team up with non-OPEC to further cut production. The timetable is also known - the June ? OPEC meeting. The unknown is how much. With so much known, I think the next rally may not get us back to $17.5 (high reached on the last rally). The weekly API will give some help, as a hot summer is expected. But it's still going to boil down to the amount of supply coming on board. With regard to the drillers, the GOM daterate is currently under some pressure. I don't expect this softness to disappear until $18 oil. Therefore, there is a cap on where the upper ceilings of the drillers are. The way to profit is to continue to trade, as you are I are doing. The key to the correct call is to know which short term indicator to use - oil price, stochastics, dayrate news, etc.