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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (18693)	5/19/1998 8:30:00 AM
From: Defrocked	Respond to of 94695

RE: "By the way the futures are up 5 right now so there should be a pop at the open." Note that SPoos went out at the lower arb. pt. on yesterday's close(around a 2.5 premium to SPX). Thus part of "the pop" is a move back to the upper arb. pt. of 5.0. which is 1105.82 + 5.00 or 1110.82. With Globex now at 1112.3, futures are now only 1.5 above the upper arb. pt. implying a small arb. push on the DJIA of only 10 pts. FWIW.

To: donald sew who wrote (18693)	5/19/1998 9:15:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 94695

Don, I would expect this rally to be very narrow, with weak internals. You are right on all your counts, except we are going to new highs, 9600 this week and probably 9900, by end of next. Even though I'm getting a lot better at this, I am reminded to stay humble by entering one or two days early and getting a little egg on my face. God likes it that way, He's da man. : - ) bobby b

To: donald sew who wrote (18693)	5/19/1998 10:23:00 AM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

I have found that when a "pro" trader is thrown by exuberance, it is usually a good bet to fade them. Shall we call this the "Bobby Factor"? <g> However, as with all fades, timing is important. The trouble here is to quantify this exuberance. Perhaps a post count each day on there key words show up like the number 10,000 and such. I like how this guy makes changes to his plan as reality unfolds and then says "everything is going to plan". Heck, this several year bull run has been going to MY plan. Right? Even that paper loss in IFMX for $20,000. <g> I can think of one trader here on SI that had well over 15 open option positions on earnings trades and then left the trades to work full time at a job. Talk about the unwarranted confidence of very positive sentiment. This was after several earnings warning seasons that were showing earnings disappointments and a market that was giving obvious warning signals of a pending downturn. Then last October tanked where this trader lost in two days a good part of their portfolio. They would of been a good contrarian indictor at that time. I think they still may be a good contrarian indicator, for the trader has a pattern of going back on the promises they made to themselves in an attempt to keep that from happening again. Bob Graham