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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trebor who wrote (5036)	5/19/1998 6:01:00 PM
From: wooden ships	Respond to of 42834

Flanagan versus Brinker. Flanagan, along with the G8 leaders et al., frets mightily over the Y2K bug. Brinker seems inclined to dismiss the occurrence of the millennial turnover vis a vis the Y2K problem as "a non-event." Even if Brinker is right, could the markets get clobbered as the shadow of A.D. 2000 and the pestiferous bug, which it may carry, creep inexorably upon Wall Street? It is said, in the markets, that "perception is everything." Could merely the perception of serious untoward consequences from the "millennial bug", at some moment prior to 31 December 1999, trigger a cascade of disinvestment, which itself might force the unwinding of mutual fund positions in a potentially mad scramble to protect profits pursuant to a loss of confidence in a "bug riddled" immediate future?

To: Trebor who wrote (5036)	5/19/1998 7:55:00 PM
From: Rillinois	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42834

Brinker and Applied Materials For the record, I would like to remind everyone that I agree with Bob Brinker that the Total Stock Market Index fund is not only a great performer, it is tax-efficient, cost-efficient, and provides ample diversification across three asset classes (domestic large, mid, and small cap. stocks). My contention is that Brinker is in denial when it comes to thinking that he can outperform the market with individual stock picks. I would like to begin by saying that to the best of my knowledge, I do not believe Brinker has ever recommended Applied Materials in his newsletter. If this is incorrect, please correct me. I have no intention of publishing false information. To the contrary, I am only interested in having the truth come out about Brinker's stock picking record. Brinker made mention of Applied Materials on Nightly Business Report for the first time on September 22, 1995. Here is the transcript to prove it: KANGAS: How about individual issues? BRINKER: Well, there are ideas out there. There is a company on the Nasdaq, Komag, K-M-A-G. Now here's a stock that serves the high performance disk drive market, stock's trading around 69-1/2, growing 35% compound annual looking forward. And this is an exciting stock. I think next year that Komag will trade above $100 a share. KANGAS: That was recommended by a recent market monitor of ours. Okay, let's go, or you have another one? BRINKER: Well Applied Materials, a leader in semi-conductor manufacturing equipment. Here's a stock that's trading at 100, it will split 2-for-1 next month, rapid grower 25% or better. Probably for the rest of the decade I would buy Applied Materials. Applied Materials reached a split-adjusted high of $29 15/16 on August 16, 1995. Brinker issued his buy recommendation on public television just over a month later (Sept. 22) at a split-adjusted $25 1/16. In just 4 months Applied Materials reached a low of $15 on January 16, 1996. That's over a 40% drop in just 4 months. Well, Brinker was back on Nightly Business Report on May 31, 1996. Since his last visit, Applied Material was at $18 5/8, down over 25%, and the S & P 500 was up over 15%, not including dividends, of course. Here is the transcript of that appearance: KANGAS: You had one clinker, Applied Materials, you said 50 is a good place to buy it, now about 36. BRINKER: Yeah, I'd say this is a good place to hold this stock, they are coming through the semiconductor cycle and it's a quality blue chip company, and I would hold on. Suprisingly, Applied Materials went on to reach a low of $10 7/8 on July 24, 1996. That's over a 55% drop in just 10 months. A time period where the S & P 500 rose nearly 8%, not including dividends. Finally, Applied Materials closed today at $37 3/16. An investor acting on Brinker's original buy recommendation on NBR on September 22, 1995, would have an unrealized gain of 48% after one hell of a roller coaster ride. In comparison, the S & P 500 has risen nearly 91% since Sept. 22, 1995, not including dividends. Not to mention that the investor who owned the S & P 500 assumed much less risk than the investor who purchased Applied Materials. Best Regards. Rillinois P.S. This post is just one in a series of posts where I have compared and analyzed Brinker's individual stock picks to the S & P 500, similar to the way Brinker, himself, compares the performance of mutual funds or stock picks of callers to the S & P 500. For your convenience, the following are links to the other posts in this series: Ultratech Stepper Message 3589220 Message 4245276 New Asia Message 3599478 Message 3894405 Komag Message 3629468 Stanford Telecom Message 3706289 Uniphase Message 3707213