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Technology Stocks : Y2k Why the stock-market will collapse within days/week -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Mansfield who wrote (48)5/19/1998 3:40:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Respond to of 185
 
'If you're not scared, you *don't* understand the problem. If you don't understand the problem, it will grind your company up and spit it out.' Cory Hamasaki.


Subject: DC Y2K Weather Report (Denial, Rates, Medical, Rail, Software, 3330 mod eleven)
From: kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net (cory hamasaki)
Date: 1998/05/19
Message-ID: <7kepWhCNP4qd-pn2-ywK3dRY1tbVF@localhost>
Newsgroups: comp.software.year-2000
[More Headers]
[Subscribe to comp.software.year-2000]



Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 21
"May 18, 1998 - 592 days to go." WRP77

(c) 1997, 1998 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and
reproduce this newsletter as long as this entire document is reproduced in
its entirety. You may optionally quote an individual article but you should
include this header down to the tearline. I do not grant permission to a
commercial publisher to reprint this in print media.

As seen in
USENET:comp.software.year-2000
elmbronze.demon.co.uk
kiyoinc.com

--------------------tearline -----------------------------
Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those
idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes,
and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story.

If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports.

Did you miss Geek Out?
Project Dumbass needs you.

In this issue:

1. Denial heads
2. Rates (email)
3. Medical
4. Rail
5. Software Licenses
6. 3330 mod eleven
7. CCCC

-------- denial-heads ---------

Yoo-hoo, denial-heads, do you want to know how dolt-like you appear to us?
Here's an email I got from a real code cranker:

-------- begin email clip ---------
One of those people, the husband of a couple we've known for many years,
told me last night that he has noticed an increase in the number of Y2K
articles. He sees this as a scare tactic by Microsoft or Intel to build
up the fear level in the country so at an appropriate moment they can
announce that they have a solution that will solve all the problems --
for a really high price. I reminded him that most of the critical
programs still ran on main frames and that even if MS or Intel had a
solution it wouldn't help mainframes. He was not convinced.
-------- end email clip -----------

Yes, this is wacked-out, an example of the clueless trying to think. Please,
those of you in denial about Y2K, please don't try to think, it's embarrassing
to read your insane ravings. Yes, it might seem to you that you're engaged in a
cognitive process, it feels like thinking, it's similar to what you've done
before and then, someone, your mom, Mr. Smith your debate teacher, or another
usenet newgroup said, atta-boy, good one, some real thought there. But not
here. This is c.s.y2k. The systems will not be fixed in time.

We're trying to identify the vulnerbilities, such as SVC-11, tm_year, collating
issues, VSAM keys, database problems, CICS, TCAM.

---------- Rates ----------------

Here's a very slightly anonymized email from a c.s.y2k reader.

Thanks for the phone call the other night and the inside info about the DC area.
Looks like we'll be moving to Sxxxxxxxx, XX. I had 4 job offers this week:

1 - Washington DC 148k (we talked about this one on the phone)
2 - Birmingham AL 110k
3 - Lexington KY 102k
4 - Sxxxxxxxxx XX 100k

(all rates are W-2 hourly - example, 50/hr = 100k/year)

The Sxxxxxxxxx area is large enough to offer lots of job opportunity
but not as intimidating as a major metro area like DC. Also only 140 miles
from my home. My wife will be able to get a good job there without much
problem. Now, here's some stuff for your next DC WRP (just don't use my name):

1. Of the jobs listed above only #1 was a Y2K job, the rest were just regular
maintenance, support, new development, etc.
2. This would seem to indicate a couple of things:
A. The panic has definitely not started (only 1 out of 4 is Y2K???)
B. However, they are paying as much for regular mainframe work as for Y2K.
Makes you wonder what the rates will be when the panic does start.
3. #4 is double my present rate. Current company has lost 3 geeks in the last 6
weeks and has no incentive plan in place. Probably more to follow.
4. Feel free to list the cities and rates and specify that these were real
offers on the table, not the bait-and-switch stuff. Maybe you could start a
STICK-EM-UP section in the WRP that displays this kind of real rate info.

Once again, thanks for your help about contracting, DC, etc. I really tried to
specifically get a Y2K job to feel like I was helping the cause but it
hasn't worked out that way. I'll try to make my next contract Y2K. Let's stay
in touch and good luck in your contracts. God bless you.

Larry (not his real name)
--------------------------
Our reader is an experienced cranker, probably the best in his shop but not a
Shmuel. With a little shopping he was able to double his old salary of
$50K/year. When comparing rates and cost of living, be careful about places
like NY, Boston, Chicago, DC, SF.

At 100K/year, he'll move his career ahead and maybe, just maybe if everything
goes right, he'll be able to pay his house off in a few years. Wouldn't that be
great? House paid for, some savings, his wife gets a rewarding job.

Anyone out there still underpaid? Please don't let them take advantage of you.
Ask for and get your fair share, it's only right.

--------------- hush-hush email --------
Came in Thursday, May 14, 1998; Names are changed but the facts are whole.

Cory,

Mxxx xxxx resigned Tuesday, with his last day May 31.
Pxxx xxxx resigned Thursday, with his last day May 31.
Fxxx xxxx resigned Thursday, with his last day May 31.
Axxx xxxx resigned Thursday, with her last day May 31.
Cxxx and I are resigning Friday, with our last day May 31. (Please
do not discuss this until after we have gotten a chance to tell Gxxx
xxxx. He is coming over at 3:00 to talk to us. I owe him the
courtesy of telling him myself in person.)

What will XYZ Co do?

In response to a question about the turnover rate at XYZ Co, Axx told the
board of directors that he and Bxx had spoken personally to each XYZ Co
employee and nobody is planning to resign. Bxx also said that if
someone wants to resign, let them, XYZ Co would be stronger without them.

We will see.

Love,

Betty (not her real name)
-----------
XYZ Co is a consulting company with 60 employees, 10 % of the company and
15% of the revenue is walking. Bxx is the owner and Axx is the president.

Has the screaming started on executive row? Do they understand what's
happening? Axx and Bxx think they can hire programmers, all they want. The
average salary of the programmers above is $75K/year.

Larry turned down a $148K/year W2 job in this area. Betty is leaving a
$75K/year W2 job. Oooh-oooh, math be hard for horn-hair. Be lots of
programmers, me have good hair, programmer work for pennies on
dollar. Programmer stupid, executive smart. Me have big office. Programmer
dumb, not wear nice suit like horn-hair. Programmer quit? Me hire secretary.
Swing from tail. Print business card, secretary now "developer". Client
stupid, pay $150/hour for "developer-secretary"; me pay secretary $20/hour.
Peel banana with toes.

There's a lesson in the two emails, it's about treating programmers well, being
aggressive, decisive, and pro-active in providing adequate compensation, fair
benefits, and equitable treatment. If you're an employer in a less than
desirable location, plan to pay much more.

Be very, very careful about your compensation plan. The Y2K crisis has *yet* to
begin. In a few months, you'll see that what I wrote in the first WRP's over a
year ago, were understatements. This has never happened before in the history
of the world. You had fair warning.

--------------- Medical ----------------

In addition to Tetanus, travelers to third world countries should have:

Thyphoid - good for 5 years.

Hepatitus-A - 20 years

Polio

Will the U.S. be a third world country? I don't think so but why take a chance?

--------------- No Answers here -------

On Mon, 18 May 1998 03:09:43, scottd@nbnet.nb.ca wrote:
>
> I keep reading in this newsgroup that railroads have virtually
> abandoned their large switchyards (a.k.a. hump yards, marshalling
> yards) and have moved onto a concept of "distributed switching" (which
> may be a phrase of c.s.y2k origin).

Fly to Ronald McDonald Washington National Airport. Walk 300 yards to the bridge
connecting the airport to Crystal City, Arlington. Look south from the bridge,
you will see a huge open area, a big-box shopping center, there's a Borders
Books, Office Depot, Old Navy, Sports Authority, etc. 10 years ago, CSX was
squeeking freight cars all night there. Here's the sound...
squeee-eEEEEe-eeeeek.... crash! squee-eeEEEeee-eeEEEK... crash! The whole area
was a rail switching yard. It's gone, torn up, gone to cyberspace.

4 years ago, the Washington Post ran a series of articles on the rail yard.
It was supposed to become the Marlena Cooke Sports Stadium but the residents of
Arlington and Alexandria stopped that project. The Post's articles explained
why the switching yard was no longer needed. Detailed how switching on the fly
was possible because of computers and computer driven communication.

> A secondary problem, apparently, is that the railroad(s) is/are using
> TCAM as their message handling software which may or may not be Y2K
> compliant, and which may or may not be (easily) fixable.

A railroad consortium... this issue is hard to wrap your mind around, doesn't
mean anything unless, like a Shmuel, you understand S/370 computer
communications and the history of enterprise systems. There's no "may or may
not" about it. Large assembler applications intertwined with system code are a
problem.

>
> Rick Cowles' site at www.euy2k.com also points to Y2K troubles with
> railroads as being a possible source of problems moving fossil fuels
> for the electric utilities.
>
> Are these facts or impressions? Railroad operations and/or
> switchyards Y2K-compliance seems to have sparked a number of ongoing
> debates in this NG, but I have rarely (never) seen anyone add any
> facts to the file - it just seems to go on endlessly based on very
> sparse information.

What do you want... the address of the missing switchyard? The version of TCAM
that I saw... it was TCAM 10. ...a certificate from a choo-choo accrediting
authority that their system is non-compliant? Gimme a break, the FAA still
says they're getting the job done. They're not spelling it out, you have to
analyze the signs.

>
> Who holds the facts on railroad operations here? Any URL's?

What the H*ll is this? Why do we believe URL's and not experts like Shmuel,
myself, and your own ability to analyze the self consistant facts.

> Thanks for any info
>
> p.s. Paul Milne need not reply - I'm looking for facts.

Oddly enough, paul's rants are as credible as communications from corporate
public affairs offices.

------------ Software Licenses ---------------

Help for your time machine? Last week there was some discussion on the problem
of adding S/390 MIPS and blowing your software budget. Before you order a CPU
or upgrade your 9672 from a G3 to a G4, drop me an email or call my pal Jane at
(201) 653-5776. Jane will set you up with a solution that will save you money on
hardware upgrades.

Any of you in the hardware sales business, if you're selling 9X2's, Skylines,
etc. and you're worried about the increased MIPS driving up the cost of
software, call Jane, she'll help your client purchase your hardware for their
Time Machine and save some money too. There's no magic, Jane does software
license engineering and software lease negotiations.

----------- 3330 mod eleven --------------

While I'm talking hardware, does anyone know where there is a running 3330 mod
eleven? What about one in a warehouse? I have a client with legacy data on a
3330 mod eleven. Y2K is bringing out a lot of ancient history. I called around
to a bunch of site and data recovery companies. No one can handle this problem.
I found one PC data recovery company that seems eager to help but their
questions were naive.

Them: What kind of interface is on the drive?

Me: you don't seem to understand, this isn't like a PC drive where you have an
IDE or SCSI connection. I have a disk pack, there's no electronics or
mechanicals. It's just a bunch of ferrite coated aluminum platters.

Them: What's the data capacity?

Me: 200 megabytes.

Them: How many files are on the disk and what programs wrote it.

Me: We don't know but that's what I'll be working on. We just need someone with
a drive that can read the disk. I'll be handling the data organization issues.

So I'm looking for a 3330 double density drive and control unit. Know where
there's one? let me know.

--------------- CCCC ------------------

OK, we're having a good time in c.s.y2k, the facts are out, it's a real mess;
the screaming is starting; the programmer raids have begun.

Every geek out there, every cranker, code-head, all you hairy, sweaty, T-shirt
wearing, BMW driving, Enterprise System real programmers should be able to look
back over the last 18 months and see a huge salary increase. You did get your
fair share didn't you?

Please, don't continue working for pennies on the dollar; if you deserve a 40%
increase, ask for it.

Check out ntplx.net any evening, 8-10PM EST. Lots of
hot Y2K talk. I won't be in this Tuesday evening. The DC Y2K is meeting
Tuesday night and DD and I will be grazing at the incredible buffet.

Speaking of DC Y2K. the topic this month is testing.

-- Annie Anguah-Dei (Software Testing Engineer, US Central Intelligence
Agency). Annie will discuss how to set up and run a Y2K testing program for
commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software.

-- Tracy Bair (Vice-President, SAIC). will present an approach to year 2000
certification and testing based on experiences with several federal agencies.
The approach is risk based and is focused on tailoring Year 2000 testing
based on the actual risks presented by the application and the level of the
software engineering used to develop the system.

-- Larry Summers (Year 2000 Test Program Manager, BDM International). Larry
has been running at Y2K testing effort for a Wall Street firm and will talk
about test planning, test strategy, and implementing a test with a service
provider.

-- Linda Vance (Vice-President, Fannie Mae). Linda will discuss Fannie Mae's
approach to Y2K testing, including creation of a separate test facility and
clustering of associated applications for testing. She will also talk about
the factors behind the approach taken and the lessons learned to date.

592 days... times up people, starting thinking about the 10-20% of your systems
that absolutely must work and defer the rest until later. I've been harping
about triage for the last 6 months, Y2K triage means identifying those
activities that are essential and ruthlessly eliminating everything else.
If
you haven't done this selection, drop me an email and I'll get you back on track
for survival.

If you're not scared, you *don't* understand the problem. If you don't
understand the problem, it will grind your company up and spit it out.

cory hamasaki 592 days. Y2K does matter.

x10.dejanews.com



To: John Mansfield who wrote (48)5/19/1998 4:22:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Respond to of 185
 
'What does matter are the 50,000+ who didn't enter the Enterprise Scale IT work force *every year* between 1985 and now

>
> I graduated from college 9 years ago.
>
> Since then, I've been coding in Cobol, CICS with bits of JCL and SAS
> thrown in.
>
> Done a load of Y2k remediation work, and would not describe myself as
> useless. Although my soccer teammates probably would.... <g>
>

*Just about* anyone is useless....

I thought about mentioning Northern Illinois University and hinting that
here and there a few had escaped the Pee Cee Wee Nee-ification process, hadn't
wasted their time doing NeXT and Objective C (whatever happened to that
turkey?), Windows 3.1 API calls in C but in the grand scheme of things, a few
tens of thousands of Enterprise gearheads don't matter very much.

What does matter are the 50,000+ who didn't enter the Enterprise Scale IT work
force *every year* between 1985 and now. The roughly half to one million who
didn't learn S/370 assembler, COBOL, Rexx, PL/I, MVS internals, SMP-E, IOS,
VM/CMS, RSCS, JES2/3, VTAM, EXCPVR, etc., this is where the problem is.

Because they weren't there, Enterprise systems and IT got stupider, more addled,
glaze eyed every year. Millions of lines of code were not upgraded, brought
forward, recompiled, re-documented, and now, now with 592 days until Y2K, we
don't have the experts, the systems, or the sharp middle management to execute
the conversions.

We *still* have denialheads in c.s.y2k; still have a corporate and government
world that's wondering what's happening.

>
> Back to code-cranking and lurking
>
> Cormac Hand

cory hamasaki 5-9-2 days to go.

___

Subject:
Re: Another way to embed century info into a 6-digit numeric field
Date:
18 May 1998 18:51:25 GMT
From:
kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net (cory hamasaki)
Organization:
IBM.NET
Newsgroups:
comp.software.year-2000
References:
1 , 2 , 3



To: John Mansfield who wrote (48)5/19/1998 4:25:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Respond to of 185
 
Embedded software Y2k ..Swirbul, GM, utilities again...

'In article <6jkbk4$qfu$1@nnrp1.dejanews.com>,
fedinfo@halifax.com wrote:

>
>
> Recent research indicates that the cost of fixing the manufacturing problems
>at the plant-level may be at least half of what a company spends to fix
>overall data center issues. Machines on the factory floor are very sensitive
>to incorrect dates - more so than was expected. For example, a modern
>pharmaceutical plant maintains 83 computer systems with three million lines of
>code. Within that code are 120,000 date references with potential Y2K
>problems. In addition, the plant runs 138 automated production systems with
>400 date references plus 200 machines with embedded software. . . .
> The problem on the factory floor began 20 years ago when manufacturing found
>that computers could streamline their operations, making a company more
>efficient and thus more profitable. In those early days, off-the-shelf
>software was practically non-existent so each plant developed programs that
>suited individual manufacturing specifications. The result was that custom
>software ruled the factory floor. During this time period, about half of the
>software written for manufacturing was written in Cobol. The remaining
>software was written in a variety of computing languages that might as well be
>gibberish. What this means is that although there are tools currently to hunt
>for zero-zero (00) date errors in Cobol and a few otherlanguages, few exist
>for the vast number of so-called embedded systems. Embedded systems are chips
>and programs (not readily accessible or even visible) which are integral parts
>of control and production equipment. Many must be decoded and fixed
>individually. Repairing devices and software programs is tricky since it is a
>'given' in the industry that new program errors will be introduced in seven
>percent of routine repairs. Compounding the problem is that many of these
>programs can't be fixed because they are inscribed on silicon chips. In those
>cases, manufacturers are forced to scrap any date driven plant equipment. The
>only good news is that these moves force manufacturers to purchase
>leading-edge products that will improve their efficiency and overall
>competitiveness.
> To date, the majority of U.S. manufacturers haven't even completed a
>plantwide assessment to learn the depth of the Y2K problem. With the economy
>booming, manufacturing plants are running three shifts, seven days a week.
>Companies find it difficult to replicate Year 2000 conditions before they
>happen. Because the factories can't afford to close down, the solution
>involves testing during off-peak hours, over planned shutdown periods or
>buying expensive back-up equipment.
>
> General Motors serves as a good example of how traumatic the situation is.
>With over two billion lines of code, GM is the world leader in the number of
>computerized systems. As part of its Y2K program, the company is retiring
>1,700 obsolete computer systems. Estimates to eradicate the millennium bug at
>GM run between $400 and $550 million. The severity of the problem at the
>giant auto manufacturer was recently brought to light when the company ran a
>test with some of its robotic devices. Y2K problems caused the robots to
>freeze - an act that could shut down the entire assembly line.

Yup, Y2K problems are out there. And the are big.

>Maybe some day Fred will wake up to the enormity of the logistical problems.

I work with large logistical problems all the time. Your point is?

>Maybe some day Fred will wake up to the the fact that electrical generation is
>not dependent 'soley' upon the compliance of an individual utility, of which
>NONE are yet compliant.

You know Paul, the only difference between you and I is our differing beliefs on
whether the problem can be solved in time. Except for a possible exception or
few, I know no utilities are compliant, yet. I have posted that. I know how
a relatively small disturbance in generation can bring down large partrs of
the grid. I have posted on that also. I also am seeing the remediation plans,
the failure rates, and the contingency plans.

>Maybe some day Fred will look at the proposed budgets
>and see that no matter what utilities are planning to do they have not
>budgeted the half of what they need.

Just to twist your words around, does this mean you think that the US is
only off by a factor of two for its over all Y2K budget? That isn't to
bad considering where everone is in testing right now.

>Maybe some day Fred will pull his head out of the sand.

I am more of your eyes and hears than you realize. I have the facts to back
up the problems you can only speculate exist in the electric industry. But,
again, I think they can be solved (by most utilities, anyway. Some are
sure to make mistakes).

Back to solving Y2K problems and answering legitimate Y2K questions.

>Nahhhh.
>
>Paul Milne
>http://marketspace.altavista.digital.com/WebPort.asp?ArticleId=375
>
>-----== Posted via Deja News, The Leader in Internet Discussion ==-----
>http://www.dejanews.com/ Now offering spam-free web-based newsreading

___

Subject:
Re: The Continuing Education Of Fred Swirbul Chapter 1
Date:
Mon, 18 May 1998 17:45:46 GMT
From:
Fred Swirbul <fswirbul@ix.netcom.com>
Organization:
ICGNetcom
Newsgroups:
comp.software.year-2000
References:
1



To: John Mansfield who wrote (48)5/19/1998 4:35:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 185
 
[HARLAN] Continuing story of...Harlan Smith vs. Fred Swirbul

I like both Harlan and Fred... Why is this so exiting? Both are very knowledgeable about utilities and about Y2k... (Harlan more on the latter; Fred more on the former).

It is because this is the discussion that is going on inside the minds of many persons, including myself ('oh it will be that bad, because.. but have you thought about so and so...; so maybe it won't be that bad... and so on).

John

_______

Fred Swirbul <fswirbul@ix.netcom.com> wrote in article
<6jpsso$nob@sjx-ixn8.ix.netcom.com>...

> I could go into more detail, but is this answering your question?

Well, the things you have said are common sense best scheduling of
resources.

What worries me is that the planning seems to be done on the premise that
the 1999 repair environment will be as good as 1998.

That is a false premise for several reasons:

1. There will be much less time to order and receive needed repair parts
that are identified late in the game.

2. There will be much more work stress on personnel, as the pace of
remediation accelerates in the remaining days.

3. Employees will begin to be affected by general Y2K stress and worry.

4. Improper scoping of work may force emergency outages of other generating
stations and consequent lack of electric power to your downed site might
further impede your work.

5. Significant Y2K disruptions may become evident as NY State, Canada and
UK start the 2000 fiscal year on 1999-04-01.

I would say that any plan to do electric generating station or transmission
or distribution remediation after 1998-12-21 is a _very _bad plan. Yet, I
believe I have observed you to casually talk about such.

I am not questioning your competence to do a bang up job in the semi-normal
environment of 1998, but I question anybody's competence to plan and
execute a job into 1999. Pardon the expression, but you ought to be going
balls out now and working all kinds of overtime right now to avoid such.

If you plan on doing anything but taking care of minor exceptions in Jan -
Mar 1999 and beyond I would say you have a very bad plan.

Now I think you clearly know what's bothering me.

Harlan

___

Subject:
Re: Gary North Ridicules Fred Swurbil
Date:
18 May 1998 14:33:07 EDT
From:
"Harlan Smith" <hwsmith.nowhere@cris.com>
Organization:
Paperless
Newsgroups:
comp.software.year-2000
References:
1 , 2 , 3 , 4



To: John Mansfield who wrote (48)5/19/1998 5:23:00 PM
From: Paul van Wijk  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 185
 
John,

That was a great post. We sure do need new leaders now.
I totally agree with Forbes, they hit the nail on the
head. No more Bill Gates, no more Al Gore and
absolutely no more Cremer, the most disgusting
American I know
.

What we need is people like Bill Clinton, Tony Blair,
Nelson Mandela, Michael Dell, Norman Schwarzkopf,
Muhammed Ali
(although he is not capable of doing
this anymore, I would strongly recommend everyone to
see the Oscar-winning movie "When we were Kings", I have deep
respect for the man, as a boxer, but especially as a
human being),Al Greenspan, Steve Forbes and others.

We can no longer afford to follow the greedy ones.

We need a new kind of leadership.

The first step to a solution is accepting the problem.

Let us remind the words of John F. Kennedy who said;
Don't ask what your country can do for you, ask what
you can do for your country


I really think it is good news that finally people
like Clinton and Forbes are moving in the right
direction. Forget the stock-prices, forget the greed.

We need to change focus,

I will be more specific on this subject later.
Thanks for thinking in the right direction.

Paul