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To: JRI who wrote (43296)	5/19/1998 3:39:00 PM
From: Jim Patterson	Respond to of 176387

RE: Sorry, Luc, IMO your "worldview arguments" leave a lot to be desired, and I, for one, will need a lot of convincing that you have any more experience than reading the headlines from the USA Today....Sorry, unfair cut at you....Let's just say that I am open to your arguments, as always What you may not know or realise is the US market is holding the whole thing togeather. I do not have a lot of experience in other countries. Here is a question for you. Have you ever experienced or lived in an economic colapse ? They do not end over night. The next leg down of the asian contaigian will occure when China devalues it's currence, or suffers an economic setback itself. Will that happen before or after the US peaks, I don't know. I do know that there is still a very high probabality of this happening. Japan has been a great buying oppertunity since 1989. Might I remind you that that market is still down 60% from it's 1989 peak. Mexico is in better shape today than it was in the 70's and 80's... I would like to remind you that the country just went bankrupt. With Oil prices falling, their abality to pay interest and debt is fading. If you step back and look at the forest and not the trees, you will see that there are areas of drought and disease all over the place. Buy you are in the lushest greenest part of the forest. BTW, trees often green up and bear their best fruit just before they die. Jim

To: JRI who wrote (43296)	5/19/1998 3:40:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Normally I wouldn't even respond to a post such as yours, but I'll make an exception in your case since I don't recall you being so impolite before. Let's look at them one by one: <<<<Your world collapse scenario is full of holes...... <<Asia has collapsed and social unrest has begun.>> Good thing you are long Japan to take advantage of this great opportunity.....>>> Did I say anything about Japan in my last post??? How does my investing in Japan blow holes in my last post?? which was speculation, anything of that nature is nothing but speculation. As for my reasons for beginning to build a position in Japan, AGAIN!! I appreciate all the interest in my other investments, but I suggest you do a little research on Japan and come on over to the Japan thread for a little discussion. I'd be happy to ggo over it. You are right though, if the world economy goes down the drain, Japan will go w/ it. although, they don't have much farther to fall and won't fall near as far as the US. Like I said, I hope it doesn't happen. I just don't think it is a time to be taking chances. If I'm wrong I make lots of money in Japan that much sooner. If my fears are correct and we do have a worldwide recession/depression, it takes me a little longer to make money in Japan, but at the current levels. I feel alot more comfortable paying cheap prices for excellent co's than paying bloated prices for US co's which will likely come down 80% <<<<<<Mexico and Brazil started getting hammered last week.>> These markets, economies are fundamentally different and stronger than they were in the 70's, 80's, and earlier 90's. Being emerging markets, they are going to have considerable growing pains, hot money flow aches, etc. But they are on the right road for sure...... (Brasil reacted great to the Asian crisis last year, are you aware of that? That market has bottomed short-term for sure)>>>>>>> I'll leave that one. I don't like the tone of that next to last sentence. The mkts speak for themselves. again, I am specualting on the future which is very difficult to do, admittedly. <<<You are guessing that Russia is going to start WorldWar IV? This is a fundament to your worldview? Or is it that a moribund Russian economy will help bring down the world economy...Both seem like real long shots....>>> Of course they are, that was pure speculation. Anything is a possibility. Actually, I would hope that it doesn't come to that. However, in a world depression nationalism tends to break out in the most unfriendly of ways. <<<<What? C'mon Luc, tell us all you REALLY know about the Saudi government, opposition leaders, economy.............My GUESS is that you are totally GUESSING here! You arguments become especially weak when you start talking about the rest of the world. Looks like you shoot for the hip a lot. Given that world economic collapse is the cornerstone of your investment strategy, can you answer the following: Have you ever lived, worked, studied abroad? Do you speak any foreign languages? Do you possess any relationship to experienced international economic advisers, mutual fund managers, head of state, etc. that have given you data to support your view. What are your mainsources of information?>>> Saudi gov?? MMM. Let me tell ya. The British gave the arabian penn. to the Saudi family (basically a small nomadic tribe at the time). Yrs passed, oil was found. Today, the rest of the poplation hates this select few that get all the $$$ and privileges. If things ever get bad, a revolution could be easily seen. BTW- world collapse (that's a good one LOL!!) is not a fundimental of my investment strategy. again!!!!!!!, I just think w/ all the uncertainty out there, it is not a time to be taking on a vast amt of risk. Don't worry, I am not shorting Saudi mkts in hopes of a revolution. LOL!!! You people need to lighten up. Not going to discuss the rest. That was most unfriendly. <<<Sorry, Luc, IMO your "worldview arguments" leave a lot to be desired, and I, for one, will need a lot of convincing that you have any more experience than reading the headlines from the USA Today....Sorry, unfair cut at you....Let's just say that I am open to your arguments, as always>>>> My favorite part of your post.... Here's all I have to say: I could really care less whether you are convinced or not that I have a greater mental capacity than the common monkey. That just killed 10 minutes. I got work to do! Don't post to me again, until you get an attitude adjustment. Thanks. -Lucretius