Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : AHTC Corp (AHTC)-formerly Advanced Health (ADVH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zebra 365 who wrote (159)	5/19/1998 7:27:00 PM
From: Tom D	Respond to of 371

The future of ADVH... A price of $50 in 12 months assumes numbers along the lines of 1999 EPS of $1.50 and a P/E of 33. It is not an impossibility. It probably hinges a lot on management's guidance about the year 2000 (when they provide this) and on what happens to the IMM acquisition. As my privately-held 60 internist medical group does increasing amounts of global risk contracting, we are going through what appears to be a 3 or 4 year period of staggering growth in earnings per share. ADVH has share dilution to drag down the EPS, and they don't have the cohesiveness of a one metro region group. But as the last two years have unfolded, it is apparent that global risk contracting is the most successful business model for managing health care--not HMO's, and not hospital ownership of physicians. Physicians have a tremendous untapped potential for creating value by using their knowledge, creativity and talents for practicing cost-effective medicine. They just aren't motivated to do so when owned by hosptials or treated like dirt in an adversarial relationship with HMO's. Who knows where ADVH will be in May of 1999? Does anybody seriously think it will be under $20 per share? It would be nice to see the stock in the upper teens already, but there is nothing weak or wrong about this company. So there wasn't a short squeeze and we all didn't have to choose whether or not to take a quick profit. ADVH is still the best investment in PPM's available. It partners with physician groups--preserving physician ownership and control. But it also enables global risk contracting, which fundamentally changes the way medicine is practiced--it is the future of the medical profession. It won't break my heart if the stock is at $30 in a year instead of $50. I could even handle $25. Best Regards, Tom