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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (4941)	5/19/1998 9:55:00 PM
From: Sandra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Sergio, I heard today on cnbc that billions of dollars have flooded into the mutual funds this month. Most of the money managers are sitting on it! The media, also is playing into this pause.....Heres Kramers view, everyone has one! Wrong! Fed Doesn't Move, and Cramer Says That's Good News By James J. Cramer OK, OK, the market didn't rally after the Fed did nothing. Where does it say it should? Only some talking heads on television really expected a rally. Four years ago, the Fed inflicted one of its small surprise tightenings and the stock market zoomed for days. But you simply can't make judgments on the after-Fed programs that roil the market. Like Tuesday's selloff, they aren't predictive. One thing you can predict, however, is that the media will interpret the selloff as meaning that the Fed will tighten in July. You would think that the press would be willing to give tightening talk a rest right after the Fed failed to tighten. But the press is always searching for something to talk about, and no one ever minds talking bearishly about the Fed's next move. Stock owners don't understand the pressure the press feels to be negative. If the market goes up after you say something bearish or cautious, you don't get any heat. But if the market goes down after you have been bullish, you are the goat!!! No one ever minds caution. Heck, caution is what the game's all about. Caution equals smarts. Bullishness equals recklessness. Yes, that's the way the press views things. I remember that when we started SmartMoney in the early 1990s, I would go into conferences with journalists about what the magazine should look like and I would explain that caution doesn't make you money. Caution keeps you in cash -- risk makes you money. Too much risk can lose you money, so we should focus on opportunity. The Dow was 5000 points lower and I was bullish as all get out, yet I almost always lost out in my desire to be a tad more upbeat about wealth creation, until Steve Swartz asserted himself as a voice of reason in a sea of nihilists. Of course, the same people who told me that it was right to be cautious at 3000 are still cautious. My optimism is always regarded as "reckless," both among the press and among fellow money managers. So what am I doing? I am buying stocks that are selling off. Because when oil breaks through $13, when commodity prices get crushed and the Fed is not worried, then I am not worried. Let the bears sell me stock because of worries about what the Fed will do in July -- as the bears have after virtually every meeting I can recall except ones where the Fed tightened!